BackgroundA survey of presences and absences of specific species across multiple biogeographic units (or bioregions) are used in a broad area of biological studies from ecology to microbiology. Using binary presence-absence data, we evaluate species co-occurrences that help elucidate relationships among organisms and environments. To summarize similarity between occurrences of species, we routinely use the Jaccard/Tanimoto coefficient, which is the ratio of their intersection to their union. It is natural, then, to identify statistically significant Jaccard/Tanimoto coefficients, which suggest non-random co-occurrences of species. However, statistical hypothesis testing using this similarity coefficient has been seldom used or studied.ResultsWe introduce a hypothesis test for similarity for biological presence-absence data, using the Jaccard/Tanimoto coefficient. Several key improvements are presented including unbiased estimation of expectation and centered Jaccard/Tanimoto coefficients, that account for occurrence probabilities. The exact and asymptotic solutions are derived. To overcome a computational burden due to high-dimensionality, we propose the bootstrap and measurement concentration algorithms to efficiently estimate statistical significance of binary similarity. Comprehensive simulation studies demonstrate that our proposed methods produce accurate p-values and false discovery rates. The proposed estimation methods are orders of magnitude faster than the exact solution, particularly with an increasing dimensionality. We showcase their applications in evaluating co-occurrences of bird species in 28 islands of Vanuatu and fish species in 3347 freshwater habitats in France. The proposed methods are implemented in an open source R package called jaccard (https://cran.r-project.org/package=jaccard).ConclusionWe introduce a suite of statistical methods for the Jaccard/Tanimoto similarity coefficient for binary data, that enable straightforward incorporation of probabilistic measures in analysis for species co-occurrences. Due to their generality, the proposed methods and implementations are applicable to a wide range of binary data arising from genomics, biochemistry, and other areas of science.

As machine learning/artificial intelligence algorithms are defeating chess masters and, most recently, GO champions, there is interest – and hope – that they will prove equally useful in assisting chemists in predicting outcomes of organic reactions. This paper demonstrates, however, that the applicability of machine learning to the problems of chemical reactivity over diverse types of chemistries remains limited – in particular, with the currently available chemical descriptors, fundamental mathematical theorems impose upper bounds on the accuracy with which raction yields and times can be predicted. Improving the performance of machine-learning methods calls for the development of fundamentally new chemical descriptors.

Parallel tempering is a generic Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling method which allows good mixing with multimodal target distributions, where conventional Metropolis-Hastings algorithms often fail. The mixing properties of the sampler depend strongly on the choice of tuning parameters, such as the temperature schedule and the proposal distribution used for local exploration. We propose an adaptive algorithm which tunes both the temperature schedule and the parameters of the random-walk Metropolis kernel automatically. We prove the convergence of the adaptation and a strong law of large numbers for the algorithm. We illustrate the performance of our method with examples. Our empirical findings indicate that the algorithm can cope well with different kind of scenarios without prior tuning.