The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3•5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54•0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38•1-65•8), 17•4% (7•7-28•4), and 59•5% (34•2-86•9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Introduction The incidence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has been reported to be rising over the years leading up to 2010. In Zimbabwe, there are few studies done to examine the incidence of NCDs in people living with HIV (PLHIV) on anti-retroviral treatment (ART). Objective To determine the incidence of NCDs in HIV patients on ART at the Chitungwiza Central Hospital over ten years and the associated risk factors. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study using data from 203 patients enrolled on ART at the Chitungwiza Central Hospital between 2010 and 2019. All 500 records were considered and the selection was based on participants’ consenting to the study and their strict adherence to ART without absconding. The incidence of NCDs was determined and generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to estimate the association between NCDs and the selected risk factors. Findings Data collected at the study’s baseline (2010) showed that the most prevalent NCD was hypertension, found in (18/203) 8.9% of the study participants, followed by diabetes (6.9%), then followed by cardiovascular diseases (CVD) (3.9%), and the least common NCD was cancer (1.9%). Incidences of all of these NCDs showed an increasing trend as the time of follow-up progressed. The factors found to be significantly associated with the development of NCDs were gender (p = 0.002) and follow-up time (p<0.001). Geographical location was a significant risk factor as urban patients were more likely to develop hypertension as compared to the peri-urban patients (p = 0.001). Conclusions NCDs and HIV comorbidity is common with women more likely than males to develop NCDs as they advance in age. There is need to devise targeted intervention approach to the respective NCDs and risk factors since they affect differently in relation to the demographic details of the participants. Recommendations This paper recommends a multi-stakeholder approach to the management of NCDs, with researchers, clinicians and the government and its various arms taking a leading role.

Background: Access to an adequate diet is a key criterion for improving nutritional status. Indigenous food (IF) can play a big role in improving dietary variety in rural populations. The aim of the study was to assess the effectiveness of an IF diet for under-five children in Early childhood development (ECD) centres.Method: A one-group pretest-posttest experimental design study was undertaken in three ECD centres from three different villages of Sekhukhune district, the former Fetakgomo municipality, in Limpopo, South Africa. An IF diet intervention was implemented for a period of six months with 253 children aged 0-5 attending three ECD centres. Anthropometric measurements were taken pre-introduction of an IF diet and post-intervention. The dependent sample t-Test was used to compare the pre- and post-anthropometric measures, and a p-value<0.5 was deemed statistically significant.Results: Significant improvement in the nutritional outcomes of the participating children were recorded, a majority (50%) of who were aged three. The study showed significant differences in pre- and post-anthropometric measurements for weight p<0.0001 and Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) (p=0.002), whilst there was not any significant difference on pre- and post-height measurements (p=0.857).Conclusion: The adapted IF diet is shown to be effective for the nutritional outcomes of children and can be used to promote the use of IF and address nutritional deficiencies amongst under-five children in Limpopo, South Africa.