Sulawesi Island is very prone to earthquakes. This is due to the meeting of three tectonic plates, namely the Eurasian Plate, the Philippine Plate, and the Indo-Australian Plate. In northern Sulawesi, there is also a micro plate, namely the Sulawesi Sea Plate, as a result of the movement of the Sulawesi Sea Plate, a subduction zone or subduction zone is formed. The subduction zone in the Sulawesi Sea Plate is known as the North Sulawesi Megathrust. If an earthquake with a very large magnitude occurs in the Megathrust Zone of North Sulawesi which has the potential for a tsunami, it is necessary to estimate the tsunami threat using the Tsunami Observation and Simulation Terminal (TOAST) to find out the tsunami simulation modeling that produces important information such as the arrival time of the tsunami, locations with the potential for a tsunami and the maximum tsunami height will occur as disaster mitigation measures. The method used is a qualitative method with descriptive analytical type. To obtain research data, data provision techniques are used with literature study and field studies. The research results in the form of tsunami threat modeling indicate that locations close to the epicenter of the earthquake have a potential tsunami threat with a warning status, namely in Buol, Minahasa Islands, northern Bolaang Mongondow and northern Gorontalo. Meanwhile, locations that have standby status are Manado City, northern Minahasa, Toli-Toli and northern South Minahasa. From the results of tsunami modeling, it was found that the maximum height of the tsunami reached 5.74 meters in northern Gorontalo. The ability of all components of society and local government is needed to form community resilience that is potentially affected, especially in facing the threat of a tsunami disaster in the Megathrust Zone of North Sulawesi. Thus, disaster risk can be reduced or suppressed.
Kabupaten Pidie Jaya merupakan daerah dengan ancaman abrasi dan gelombang ekstrem pada kategori tinggi. Abrasi dapat mengancam ekosistem laut dan menjadi masalah bagi tatanan kehidupan masyarakat yang berada di sekitar pantai yang berimplikasi terhadap keamanan insani. Kerentanan yang terdapat di masyarakat pesisir memperbesar ancaman bencana. Bermula dari masalah tersebut, penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis dan mengidentifikasi kapasitas masyarakat pesisir Pidie Jaya dalam menanggulangi ancaman bencana abrasi dan implikasinya terhadap keamanan insani. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini ialah kualitatif dengan tipe deskriptif. Selain menggunakan data primer, peneliti juga menggunakan data sekunder yang diperoleh melalui wawancara, FGD, dokumentasi, dan kajian literatur. Teknik analisis data menggunakan model Milles, Hubermen, dan Saldana, yaitu pengumpulan, kondensasi, dan penyajian terhadap data lalu dilanjutkan pengambilan keputusan. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah peningkatan kapasitas masyarakat pesisir Pidie Jaya dilakukan dengan pembentukan regulasi dan kelembagaan, penanaman pohon mangrove dan Alat Pemecah Ombak (APO). Bencana abrasi berimplikasi terhadap keamanan insani dengan hilangnya mata pencaharian, rumah tinggal, dan mengancam kesehatan.
As of June 30, 2021, Indonesia ranks third in Asia with the highest number of deaths due to COVID-19. One of the provinces in Indonesia, Central Java, is ranked third nationally in the accumulation of positive cases, recoveries, and deaths. Fulfilling the need for burial grounds for COVID-19 positive bodies needs attention because several countries and regions in Indonesia were experiencing a COVID-19 public cemetery land crisis. Sragen Regency is one area in Central Java designated as a red zone. The number of death cases is relatively high needs to ensure the availability of COVID-19 burial grounds. Therefore, this study aims to model the forecast for COVID-19 burial grounds. The approach used in this research is systems thinking, while the method used is system dynamics with Powersim software. Reference data for modeling is obtained from the http://corona.sragenkab.go.id page. The simulation results show the AME value of 4.7% or less than 5% so that the model is declared valid. Based on the Business as Usual (BAU) simulation, in the 20th week, it is estimated that there will be 320 deaths with a burial area of 961.13 m². Until the 20th week, the increase in COVID-19 Positive Population, Death, and Cemetery Land Needs on the graph of the BAU simulation results shows an exponential growth trend.
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