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Conservation prioritization requires knowledge about organism distribution and density. This information is often inferred from models that estimate the probability of species occurrence rather than from models that estimate species abundance, because abundance data are harder to obtain and model. However, occurrence and abundance may not display similar patterns and therefore development of robust, scalable, abundance models is critical to ensuring that scarce conservation resources are applied where they can have the greatest benefits. Motivated by a dynamic land conservation program, we develop and assess a general method for modeling relative abundance using citizen science monitoring data. Weekly estimates of relative abundance and occurrence were compared for prioritizing times and locations of conservation actions for migratory waterbird species in California, USA. We found that abundance estimates consistently provided better rankings of observed counts than occurrence estimates. Additionally, the relationship between abundance and occurrence was nonlinear and varied by species and season. Across species, locations prioritized by occurrence models had only 10-58% overlap with locations prioritized by abundance models, highlighting that occurrence models will not typically identify the locations of highest abundance that are vital for conservation of populations.

How do you successfully engage an audience in a citizen-science project? The processes developed by eBird (www.ebird.org), a fast-growing web-based tool that now gathers millions of bird observations per month, offers a model.

Aim Avian migration strategies balance the costs and benefits of annual movements between breeding and wintering grounds. If similar constraints affect a large numbers of species, geographical concentrations of migration routes, or migration flyways, may result. Here we provide the first population‐level empirical evaluation of the structure and seasonal dynamics of migration flyways for North American terrestrial birds and their association with atmospheric conditions. Location Contiguous USA. Methods We modelled weekly probability of occurrence for 93 migratory species using spatio‐temporal exploratory models and eBird occurrence data for the combined period 2004 to 2011. We used hierarchical cluster analysis to identify species with shared migration routes based on normalized spatio‐temporal representations of autumn migration. We summarized atmospheric conditions within flyways using nocturnal wind velocity and bearing estimated at three isobaric levels (725, 825 and 925 mbar) for the combined period 2008 to 2011. Results We identified three migration flyways: an eastern and western flyway whose paths shifted westwards in the spring, and a central flyway whose core boundaries overlapped with the eastern flyway and whose width was more constricted in the autumn. The seasonal shift of the eastern flyway created potentially longer migration journeys in the spring, but this longer route coincides with a low‐level jet stream that may enhance migration speeds. Atmospheric conditions appeared to have a more limited role in the seasonal dynamics of the western flyway. Main conclusions Migration routes for terrestrial species in North America can be organized into three broadly defined migration flyways: a geographically distinct flyway located west of the 103rd meridian and two interrelated flyways located east of the 103rd meridian. Seasonal shifts in flyway locations reflect the influence of looped migration strategies that for the eastern flyway can be explained by the trade‐off between minimizing total migration distance while maintaining an association with favourable atmospheric conditions.