The evaluation studies of the proposed repository for long-term storage of spent nuclear fuel and high-level nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, are underway. Fulfillment of the requirements for limiting dose to the public, which includes containment of the radioactive waste emplaced in the proposed repository and subsequent slow release of radionuclides from the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) into the geosphere, will rely on a robust waste container design, among other EBS components. Part of the evaluation process involves sensitivity studies aimed at elucidating which model parameters contribute most to the waste package and overlying drip shield degradation characteristics. The model parameters identified for this study include (1) general corrosion rate parameters and (2) stress corrosion cracking (SCC) parameters. Temperature dependence and parameter uncertainty are evaluated for the general corrosion rate model parameters while for the SCC model parameters, uncertainty treatment of stress intensity factor, crack initiation threshold, and manufacturing flaw orientations are evaluated. Based on these evaluations new uncertainty distributions are generated and recommended for future analyses. Also, early waste package failures due to improper heat treatment were added to the waste package degradation model. The results of these investigations indicate that the waste package failure profiles are governed by the manufacturing flaw orientation model parameters.

The technical basis for Site Recommendation (SR) of the potential repository for high-level nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada has been completed. Long-term containment of the waste and subsequent slow release of radionuclides from the engineered barrier system (EBS) into the geosphere will rely on a robust waste package (WP) design, among other EBS components as well as the natural barrier system. The WP and drip shield (DS) degradation analyses for the total system performance assessment (TSPA) baseline model for the SR have shown that, based on the current corrosion models and assumptions, both the DSs and WPs do not fail within the regulatory compliance time period (10,000 years). From the perspective of initial WP failure time, the analysis results are encouraging because the upper bounds of the baseline case are likely to represent the worst case combination of key corrosion model parameters that significantly affect long-term performance of WPs in the potential repository. The estimated long life-time of the WPs in the current analysis is attributed mostly to the following two factors that delay the onset of stress corrosion cracking (SCC): (1) the stress mitigation to substantial depths from the outer surface in the dual closure-lid weld regions; and (2) the very low general-corrosion rate applied to the closure-lid weld regions to corrode the compressive stress zones. Uncertainties are associated with the current WP SCC analysis. These are stress mitigation on the closure-lid welds, characterization of manufacturing flaws applied to SCC, and general corrosion rate applied to the closurelid weld regions. These uncertainties are expected to be reduced as additional data and analyses are developed.

Sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the impact of a number of waste package and engineered barrier system (EBS) design options on long-term waste package degradation in the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The evaluations were performed by analyzing the waste package degradation in terms of the first breach and first pit-breach profiles with time. Results for each design option were assessed by comparing to results for the reference-case design. An important finding from the analyses is that the waste package lifetime could be extended substantially by limiting and delaying the contact of dripping water with the Alloy 22 corrosion resistant material (CRM) barrier. In the current model, this would keep the CRM barrier outside the conditions that makes the alloy susceptible to localized corrosion. Uncertainty in waste package degradation analysis would be reduced by improved understanding and characterization of the processes that create the local exposure condition on waste package.

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