Background Mayaro virus (Togaviridae) is an endemic arbovirus of the Americas with epidemiological similarities with the agents of other more prominent diseases such as dengue (Flaviviridae), Zika (Flaviviridae), and chikungunya (Togaviridae). It is naturally transmitted in a sylvatic/rural cycle by Haemagogus spp., but, potentially, it could be incorporated and transmitted in an urban cycle by Aedes aegypti, a vector widely disseminated in the Americas. Methods The Mayaro arbovirus dynamics was simulated mathematically in the colombian population in the eight biogeographical provinces, bearing in mind the vector’s population movement between provinces through passive transport via truck cargo. The parameters involved in the virus epidemiological dynamics, as well as the vital rates of Ae. aegypti in each of the biogeographical provinces were obtained from the literature. These data were included in a meta-population model in differential equations, represented by a model structured by age for the dynamic population of Ae. aegypti combined with an epidemiological SEI/SEIR-type model. In addition, the model was incorporated with a term of migration to represent the connectivity between the biogeographical provinces. Results The vital rates and the development cycle of Ae. aegypti varied between provinces, having greater biological potential between 23 °C and 28 °C in provinces of Imerí, biogeographical Chocó, and Magdalena, with respect to the North-Andean Moorland (9.33–21.38 °C). Magdalena and Maracaibo had the highest flow of land cargo. The results of the simulations indicate that Magdalena, Imerí, and biogeographical Chocó would be the most affected regarding the number of cases of people infected by Mayaro virus over time. Conclusions The temperature in each of the provinces influences the local population dynamics of Ae. aegypti and passive migration via transport of land cargo plays an important role on how the Mayaro virus would be disseminated in the human population. Once this arbovirus begins an urban cycle, the most-affected departments would be Antioquia, Santander, Norte de Santander, Cesar (Provinces of Magdalena), and Valle del Cauca, and Chocó (biogeographical province of Chocó), which is why vector control programmes must aim their efforts at these departments and include some type of vector control to the transport of land cargo to avoid a future Mayaro epidemic.
In Colombia Aedes aegypti is present in 80% of the country up to 2,300 m; however, little is known of its genetic relations within a country context and, hence, within a broader context, for example, America. The aforementioned, herein, analyzed the gene flow within a context of the Americas, its directionality and genetic diversity of the mitochondrial lineages in the A. aegypti populations for Colombia. This called for the use of the sequences for A. aegypti available of the mitochondrial ND4 gene in the GenBank for Colombia and the American continent. No presence was found of nuclear mitochondrial pseudogenes (NUMTs) for Colombia. It is estimated that in Colombia the gene flow of the A. aegypti populations is occurring from the southeast and northeast toward the center of the country. In comparison with the mitochondrial sequences for America, the vector's haplotypes in Colombia suggest connections between the populations of mosquitoes from the south with those from the north of the continent. The gene flow model at continental scale suggests bidirectional connections between the populations from the north of the continent with those from the south, while at South American scale it proposes the gene flow in all the directions with respect to the Colombian. The Colombian A. aegypti vector monitoring and control strategies must pay special attention to the vector's points of entry into Colombia related with Peru, Venezuela, Brazil, Mexico, and North America to avoid the entry of populations with characteristics like resistance to insecticides or vector competition.
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