Spatially expl~cit crop models were developed from mechan~stic principles to lnvestlgate the reglonal impacts of climate change. The approach highlights the spatial variability of crop responses to altered environmental conditions. The mechanistic nature of the models allows some conf~d e n c e to be placed in the results that are produced under cllmate change scenarios Two crop models have been constructed and applied across a large European region: EuroWheat (winter wheat) and EuroSunfl (sunflower). Model results were compared w~t h observed phenology and yield across a variety of scales and found to capture the current spatlal v a r~a b i l~t yIn wheat and sunflower product~vity Climate change scenarios from both equilibrium and translent general circulation model experiments were applied to each crop model. Wheat yields are predicted to Increase throughout Europe for all climate change scenarios. Conversely, water-limited sunflower yields decrease in most reglons and scenarios More posit~ve effects are predicted for winter wheat than sunflower due to a lower sens~tiv-ity to increased temperature and a higher sensitivity to elevated concentrations of CO, The lowest y~e l d increases for wheat and the largest yield decreases for sunflower are found In western Europe, wh~lst the most positive responses for both crops occur in central and eastern Europe Predictions for southern Europe are highly sensitive both within the reglon and between the scenarios The old generation of equlllbrium cllmate change scenarios glves the worst predictions (lowest yield increases or highest y~e l d decreases) More b e n e f~c~a l responses are observed for the new generation of transient scenarios for both wheat and sunflower. Area averaged results for Europe, based on the United Kingdom Meterorolog~cal Office translent experiment (UKTR), lndicate a rate of lncrease in wlnter wheat yields of 0.2 t ha-' decade" up to the 2020s and 0.36 t ha-' decade-' beyond. Smaller changes are predicted for sunflower: a rate of decrease of 0 05 t ha-' decade-' up to the 2020s followed by an increase of 0.05 t ha-' decade-' KEY WORDS: Spat~al crop modelling C l~m a t e change Mi~nter wheat . Sunflower
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