Effects of climate change on Europe-wide winter wheat and sunflower productivity

Pa, Harrison; Re, Butterfield

doi:10.3354/cr007225

Cited by 63 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 15 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The negative effects of the shorter growing season, resulting from increased temperatures was counter balanced by increasing levels of atmospheric CO 2 . Harrison & Butterfield (1996) also found increased yields of winter wheat across Europe under all the climate change scenarios they modeled. These increases in yield were attributed to the lower sensitivity of winter wheat to increased temperatures and a much higher sensitivity to elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations.…”

mentioning

confidence: 74%

“…The Unified Model was modified slightly to produce a new, coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, referred to as HadCM2, which has been used in a series of transient climate change experiments using historic and future greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing. Transient model experiments are considered more physically realistic and complex, and they allow atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 to rise gradually over time (Harrison & Butterfield 1996). HadCM2 has a spatial resolution of 2.5°× 3.75°(latitude by longitude), and the representation produces a grid box resolution of 96 × 73 grid cells, which produces a surface spatial resolution of about 417 × 278 km, reducing to 295 × 278 km at 45°north and south.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Sensitivity of winter wheat yields in the Midwestern United States to future changes in climate, climate variability, and CO2 fertilization

Southworth

Pfeifer²,

Habeck³

et al. 2002

Clim. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This research investigates the potential impacts of climate change on winter wheat Triticum aestiuum L. production, looking at changes both in the mean climate and in climate variability, under conditions of elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. The study region is comprised of the 5 states of Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin in the US. This analysis was conducted for the period 2050-59 for 10 representative farm locations in the 5 states for 6 future climate scenarios using the crop growth model CERES-Wheat. Wheat is currently the most widely grown crop in the world, with approximately 250 million ha planted each year. This region, while not a critical area for winter wheat production under current climate, is in a marginal area that could become a more important production region under a warmer climate. As such, the impacts of climate change on wheat growth are of great significance both regionally and globally. With future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of 555 ppmv, wheat yields increased 60 to 100% above current yields across the central and northern areas of the study region when modeled for 2050-59 climate change scenarios. In the southern areas of the study region, small increases (0.1 to 20%) and small decreases (-0.1 to -15%) were found. These decreases in yield were more frequent under climate conditions associated with the more extreme Hadley Center greenhouse gas run (HadCM2-GHG, representing a 1% increase in greenhouse gases per year) and for the doubled climate variability analyses. Across all sites, earlier planting dates (September 2 is optimal) performed best; yields decreased as planting was delayed. These results have implications for spring-planted crops. CO 2 fertilization effects also are found to be significant for wheat, representing an average yield increase greater than 20% under future climate scenarios, with greater benefits occurring under more moderate future climate scenarios. Without the effects of CO 2 fertilization in the model, many of the southern locations had greater decreases in yields. The overall climate change impact across the study area resulted in large increases in yields with only a few locations exhibiting decreases, and those decreases occurring only under the more extreme climate scenarios. KEY WORDS: Midwestern United States · Winter wheat · Carbon dioxide · HadCM2 model · CERES-Wheat · Climate variabilityResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher Clim Res 22: 73-86, 2002 Johnston 1995, IPCC 1995). Climate influences crop growth and yields directly through impacts on phenology, photosynthesis, and other physiological processes. Indirect effects relate to nutrient availability, weeds, pests and diseases, and ability of farmers to work in the field (field days). These effects will be modified by moisture availability and temperature ranges (Olesen et al. 2000).With respect to agriculture, changes in solar radiation, temperature, and precipitation will produce changes in crop yields, crop mix, cr...

show abstract

mentioning

confidence: 74%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of winter wheat yields in the Midwestern United States to future changes in climate, climate variability, and CO2 fertilization

Southworth

Pfeifer²,

Habeck³

et al. 2002

Clim. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A regional analysis that included Yakima, WA, projected winter wheat yield increases for all scenarios, fluctuating from 8 to 37%, with some increase in yields due to temperature, and largely enhanced by CO 2 increase. Simulations for temperate climates elsewhere have also indicated climate change being neutral or beneficial for winter wheat production (Harrison and Butterfield, 1996;Nonhebel, 1996;Favis-Mortlock et al, 1991).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

et al. 2010

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A n assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen to evaluate impacts for the periods 2010-2039, 2030-2059 and 2070-2099, identified as 2020, 2040, and 2080 scenarios, respectively. All climate projections reflect a warming future climate, but the individual GCMs vary with respect to precipitation changes -some models reflect wetter conditions and some drier. The assessment included the crops with larger economic value for the state at selected representative locations: irrigated apples at Sunnyside; irrigated potatoes at Othello; dryland wheat at Pullman (high precipitation), Saint John (intermediate precipitation), and Lind and Odessa (low precipitation). To evaluate crop performance, a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst) was utilized using historical and future climate sequences, including simulations with and without concurrent elevation of atmospheric CO 2 concentration as given by the IPCC A1B CO 2 emission projection. Crops were assumed to receive adequate water (irrigated crops) and nutrient supply and possible negative impacts from pests and diseases were not accounted for. Simulation results project that the impact of climate change on selected but economically significant crops in eastern Washington will be generally mild in the short term (i.e., next two decades), but increasingly detrimental with time (potential yield losses reaching 25% for some crops by the end of the century). However, the projected CO 2 elevation is expected to provide significant mitigation of climate change effects, and in fact result in yield gains for some crops. Yields of winter wheat, without CO 2 effect, are projected to increase 2% to 8% for the 2020 scenario, tending to decline with further warming in high precipitation locations, but continue increasing to reach a 12% gain by the 2080s in low precipitation locations. With CO 2 elevation, winter wheat yields are projected to increase by 15% for the 2020 scenario, with larger increases later in the century. Spring wheat yields are projected not to change for the 2020 scenario, and decline 10% to 15% (2040), and 20% to 26% (2080) without CO 2 effect. However, earlier planting combined with CO 2 elevation is projected to increase yields by 16% for the 2020 scenario. 191Yields of irrigated potatoes are projected to decline 9%, 15%, and 22% for the 2020, 2040, and 2080 scenarios, respectively, but these losses are significantly smaller (2 to 3%) with CO 2 elevation. Varieties with a longer duration of green leaf area, combined with elevated CO 2 , could potentially result in yield gains of 15%. However, reductions of tuber quality are a concern under warmer conditions. Apple yields are projected to decline 1%, 3%, and 4% for the 2020, 2040, and 2080 scenarios, respectively, but with projected yields increasing 6% (2020), 9% (2040), and...

show abstract

“…Crop modelling studies (Harrison & Butterfield 1996, Brown & Rosenberg 1999, Wassenaar et al 1999, Alexandrov & Hoogenboom 2000a,b, Reilly et al 2003 show the same result, and this is also the case in highlatitude areas such as Denmark (Olesen et al 2000) and Scotland (Peiris et al 1996).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Fluctuations of winter wheat yields in relation to length of winter in Sweden 1866 to 2006

Holmer

2008

Clim. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The winter wheat Triticum aestivum L. areas in Sweden (55 to 61°N) are at, or close to, the northern border of winter wheat cultivation. Yield variations at the county level for 1866 to 2006 are analysed and compared with variations in length of winter. Yield deviations greater than ± 25% occur on average once every 5 yr in a county, but more often in the north. In a maritime climate such as the one in north-western Europe, the length of winter fluctuates considerably. Deviations in length of winter by more than ± 45 d appear on average once every 5 yr in a county, but more frequently in the southern coastal counties. However, freezing temperatures are also more intermittent there compared to the continuous cold in the north. By means of a cluster analysis of the variations in length of winter, the counties were divided into 4 groups. The general effect is that long winters give decreasing yields. Regressions between deviations in yield and length of winter show determination coefficients (R 2 ) in the range of 0.13 to 0.30, which is high for a single variable. Winters are, on average, 48 d longer when yields are 25% below trend compared with yields 25% above trend. This pattern seems to be typical for climates with winter temperatures < 5 to 6°C. KEY WORDS: Length of winter · Winter wheat yield · High latitude · Climate fluctuations Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 36: [241][242][243][244][245][246][247][248][249][250][251][252] 2008 2002) and photoeffects beyond the end of the vegetative phase (Gonzalez et al. 2002).Very cold winters cause winter kill of seedlings. Temperatures of -20 to -15°C are lethal (Porter & Gawith 1999). However, snow cover gives protection, acting as an insulation layer. For example, with 10 cm of snow, the nighttime soil temperature minimum can be as high as -12°C, while the air temperature minimum is -30°C (Peel & Riveland 1997).Data on winter wheat yields in southern England for >100 yr (Chmielewski & Potts 1995) showed negative correlation with precipitation occurring in all months, i.e. there is more than enough water for the entire year. Negative temperature correlations also prevailed for most of the year, especially in July, which means that high temperatures were not favourable to yields. A significantly high correlation with maximum temperature in April was a notable exception, showing that higher temperatures in spring will encourage plant development after the winter. Landau et al. (1998Landau et al. ( , 2000, using more recent yield data from the entire UK, supported the adverse effect of precipitation and minimum temperature in July, but stressed the positive correlation with maximum temperature in January and diminished winter killing due to a fewer number of extreme frosts. Similarly, Olesen et al. (2000), in Denmark, showed a positive effect of a high temperature in October, November and January and a strong negative effect of too much precipitation in July. On the other hand, Alexandrov & Hoogenbo...

show abstract

Effects of climate change on Europe-wide winter wheat and sunflower productivity

Cited by 63 publications

References 15 publications

Sensitivity of winter wheat yields in the Midwestern United States to future changes in climate, climate variability, and CO2 fertilization

Sensitivity of winter wheat yields in the Midwestern United States to future changes in climate, climate variability, and CO2 fertilization

Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

Fluctuations of winter wheat yields in relation to length of winter in Sweden 1866 to 2006

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About