[Abstract unavailable

Medison.Sang Bong Ahn has received grants from Hanwha, Samjin, Ildong, and Hanmi.Dae Won Jun has served as an advisory committee member of Sysmax, J2H, and Future medicine. He is a speaker for Gilead Sciences,

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Summary Background Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for an increasing proportion of liver disease in the Asia‐Pacific region. Many areas in the region are experiencing epidemics of metabolic syndrome among rapidly ageing populations. Aims To estimate using modelling the growth in NAFLD populations, including cases with significant fibrosis that are most likely to experience advanced liver disease and related mortality. Methods A disease progression model was used to summarise and project fibrosis progression among the NAFLD populations of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. For each area, changes in the adult prevalence of obesity was used to extrapolate long‐term trends in NAFLD incidence. Results In the areas studied, prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 6%‐20% during 2019‐2030, while prevalent NASH cases increase 20%‐35%. Incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma are projected to increase by 65%‐85%, while incident decompensated cirrhosis cases increase 65%‐100% by 2030. Likewise, NAFLD‐related mortality is projected to increase between 65% and 100% from 2019 to 2030. NAFLD disease burden is expected to increase alongside rising trends in metabolic syndrome and obesity among populations in the region. This leads to more cases of advanced liver disease and associated mortality. Conclusions Preventing the growth of diabetic and obese populations will be a key factor in reducing ongoing increases in NAFLD‐related disease burden in the Asia‐Pacific region.

ObjectiveThe reliable risk factors for mortality of COVID-19 has not evaluated in well-characterised cohort. This study aimed to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality within 56 days in patients with severe infection of COVID-19.DesignRetrospective multicentre cohort study.SettingFive tertiary hospitals of Daegu, South Korea.Participants1005 participants over 19 years old confirmed COVID-19 using real-time PCR from nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs.MethodsThe clinical and laboratory features of patients with COVID-19 receiving respiratory support were analysed to ascertain the risk factors for mortality using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The relationship between overall survival and risk factors was analysed using the Kaplan-Meier method.OutcomeIn-hospital mortality for any reason within 56 days.ResultsOf the 1005 patients, 289 (28.8%) received respiratory support, and of these, 70 patients (24.2%) died. In multivariate analysis, high fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4; HR 2.784), low lymphocyte count (HR 0.480), diabetes (HR 1.917) and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (HR 1.714) were found to be independent risk factors for mortality in patients with COVID-19 receiving respiratory support (all p<0.05). Regardless of respiratory support, survival in the high FIB-4 group was significantly lower than in the low FIB-4 group (28.8 days vs 44.0 days, respectively, p<0.001). A number of risk factors were also significantly related to survival in patients with COVID-19 regardless of respiratory support (0–4 risk factors, 50.2 days; 49.7 days; 44.4 days; 32.0 days; 25.0 days, respectively, p<0.001).ConclusionFIB-4 index is a useful predictive marker for mortality in patients with COVID-19 regardless of its severity.