Lagoviruses belong to the Caliciviridae family. They were first recognized as highly pathogenic viruses of the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and European brown hare (Lepus europaeus) that emerged in the 1970-1980s, namely, rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) and European brown hare syndrome virus (EBHSV), according to the host species from which they had been first detected. However, the diversity of lagoviruses has recently expanded to include new related viruses with varying pathogenicity, geographic distribution and host ranges. Together with the frequent recombination observed amongst circulating viruses, there is a clear need to establish precise guidelines for classifying and naming lagovirus strains. Therefore, here we propose a new nomenclature based on phylogenetic relationships. In this new nomenclature, a single species of lagovirus would be recognized and called Lagovirus europaeus. The species would be divided into two genogroups that correspond to RHDV- and EBHSV-related viruses, respectively. Genogroups could be subdivided into genotypes, which could themselves be subdivided into phylogenetically well-supported variants. Based on available sequences, pairwise distance cutoffs have been defined, but with the accumulation of new sequences these cutoffs may need to be revised. We propose that an international working group could coordinate the nomenclature of lagoviruses and any proposals for revision.

Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases.

The current distribution and rate of spread of rabbit hemorrhagic disease (RHD) has been studied in Spain using interviews with hunters and conservationists and field surveys. The disease is currently present throughout Spain. A low rate of expansion (2-15 km per month), yet long distances between simultaneous outbreaks, suggests human-related transmission of RHD. The disease appears annually, mainly during spring (52.5 %) and winter (33.8 %). Most of the interviewees (63 %) indicated that the first outbreak of the disease caused greater mortalities than successive outbreaks. To investigate this, we estimated the mortality rate from RHD ot one locality, six years after the initial outbreak. The mortality rate was approximately 30 %, and lower than that estimated during the first outbreak of RHD (55-75 %). Few populations of rabbits (7.5 %) have returned to levels they held prior to the onset of the disease. Recovery was greater among dense populations. Most sites with low population of rabbits prior to the arrival of RHD have not recovered.Resume. -La distribution actuelle et les taux de propagation de la maladie hemorragique virale (RHD) ont etc etudies en Espagne par des entrevues directes et un examen sur le terrain, apres l'arrivee de la RHD en 1988. La maladie est maintenant presente partout en Espagne. La fagon dont la RHD s'est repandue en Espagne, avec un faible taux d'expansion entre local ites (2-15 km par mois) et une longue distance entre epidemics simultanees, semble indiquer un mode de transmission lie ä 1'activite humaine. La maladie apparait annuellement, principalement au printemps (52,5 %) et en hiver (33,8 %). La plupart des personnes interrogees (63 %) ont indique que la premiere epidemic de la maladie a cause une plus forte mortalite que les epidemics suivantes. Afin de verifier cela, nous avons estime le taux de mortalite du ä la RHD dans une localite, six ans apres la premiere epidemic. Le taux de mortalite etait d'environ 30 % et inferieur ä celui estime lors de la premiere epidemic de RHD (55-75 %). Peu de populations de lapins (7,5 %) sont retournees aux niveaux anterieurs ä l'arrivee de la maladie. Le retablissement a etc le plus important la ou la densite avant la maladie etait la plus forte. La plupart des populations avec une faible abondance de lapins avant la RHD se sont retablies completement.

No abstract

Data obtained by a Spanish national surveillance programme in 2005 were used to develop climatic models for predictions of the distribution of the bluetongue virus (BTV) vectors Culicoides imicola Kieffer (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) and the Culicoides obsoletus group Meigen throughout the Iberian peninsula. Models were generated using logistic regression to predict the probability of species occurrence at an 8-km spatial resolution. Predictor variables included the annual mean values and seasonalities of a remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), a sun index, interpolated precipitation and temperature. Using an information-theoretic paradigm based on Akaike's criterion, a set of best models accounting for 95% of model selection certainty were selected and used to generate an average predictive model for each vector. The predictive performances (i.e. the discrimination capacity and calibration) of the average models were evaluated by both internal and external validation. External validation was achieved by comparing average model predictions with surveillance programme data obtained in 2004 and 2006. The discriminatory capacity of both models was found to be reasonably high. The estimated areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) were 0.78 and 0.70 for the C. imicola and C. obsoletus group models, respectively, in external validation, and 0.81 and 0.75, respectively, in internal validation. The predictions of both models were in close agreement with the observed distribution patterns of both vectors. Both models, however, showed a systematic bias in their predicted probability of occurrence: observed occurrence was systematically overestimated for C. imicola and underestimated for the C. obsoletus group. Average models were used to determine the areas of spatial coincidence of the two vectors. Although their spatial distributions were highly complementary, areas of spatial coincidence were identified, mainly in Portugal and in the southwest of peninsular Spain. In a hypothetical scenario in which both Culicoides members had similar vectorial capacity for a BTV strain, these areas should be considered of special epidemiological concern because any epizootic event could be intensified by consecutive vector activity developed for both species during the year; consequently, the probability of BTV spreading to remaining areas occupied by both vectors might also be higher.