There is general consensus that climate change has contributed to the observed decline, and extinction, of many amphibian species throughout the world. However, the mechanisms of its effects remain unclear. A laboratory study in 1980-1981 in which temperate zone amphibians that were prevented from hibernating had decreased growth rates, matured at a smaller size and had increased mortality compared with those that hibernated suggested one possible mechanism. I used data from a field study of common toads (Bufo bufo) in the UK, between 1983 and 2005, to determine whether this also occurs in the field. The results demonstrated two pathways by which global warming may cause amphibian declines. First, there was a clear relationship between a decline in the body condition of female common toads and the occurrence of warmer than average years since 1983. This was paralleled by a decline in their annual survival rates with the relationship between these two declines being highly correlated. Second, there was a significant relationship between the occurrence of mild winters and a reduction in female body size, resulting in fewer eggs being laid annually. Climate warming can, therefore, act on wild temperate zone amphibians by deleteriously affecting their physiology, during and after hibernation, causing increased female mortality rates and decreased fecundity in survivors.

Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root.

A 19-year study of a common toad population in south Dorset, UK, was carried out between 1980 and 1998. The daily arrival of sexually mature male and female toads at a breeding pond was recorded each year. The timing of the main arrival of toads at the breeding pond was highly correlated with the mean daily temperatures over the 40 days immediately preceding the main arrival. When the temperatures were higher than average, breeding occurred significantly earlier in the year than if they were either average or lower than average. During the study, the toad breeding seasons were early (2-13 February) in 5 years (1989, 1990, 1993, 1995, 1998), late (16-23 March) in 2 years (1986, 1996) and average (25 February-8 March) during the remaining 12 years. Evidence was found suggesting that common toads have a daylength threshold of about 9 h, below which the migration to the breeding pond does not occur. Evidence was also found indicating that common toads in southern England have a threshold temperature for activity of about 6°C and that the onset of breeding activity is highly correlated with the number of days during the 40 days prior to the main arrival at the breeding pond that were at or above this temperature. Predicting the start of the main breeding migration to a pond in any year may be possible by comparing the pattern of the 40-day running mean daily temperatures from 21 December the preceding year with those from previous years when the start of breeding activity is known. Although all five of the earliest recorded toad breeding years occurred during the last 10 years, and were associated with the occurrence of particularly mild winters, a significant trend towards earlier breeding in recent years compared with previous years was not found.

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Two independent studies of adult common toad, Bufo bufo, movements between different spawning ponds/populations both within and between years were made in England and Sweden during the spring breeding periods of1987–1990. The results of the two studies were subsequently combined since they were found to be complementary. In addition, in England during 1984 and 1985, large numbers of ‘toadlets’ were marked so that they could be identified if recaptured as breeding adults. The degree of relocation between ponds was negatively correlated to the distance between ponds. The proportion of both males and females that moved between ponds within a particular year was significantly less than the proportion relocating between years. In any year, between 79% and 96% of adults that survived to breed the following year, returned to the original pond. Similarly, of the toadlets marked during1984–85, 81% of the males that subsequently returned as breeding adults were captured in their pond of origin. Isolation, in relation to both population dynamics and population genetics, is defined and its implications for the management of common toad populatins discussed.