Abstract.One of the purposes of the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) is to diagnose inadequacies in the understanding of the hydrological cycle and its simulation. A physically based hydrological model including a full suite of snow and cold regions hydrology processes as well as warm season, hillslope and groundwater hydrology was developed in CRHM for application in the Marmot Creek Research Basin (∼ 9.4 km 2 ), located in the Front Ranges of the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Parameters were selected from digital elevation model, forest, soil, and geological maps, and from the results of many cold regions hydrology studies in the region and elsewhere. Non-calibrated simulations were conducted for six hydrological years during the period 2005-2011 and were compared with detailed field observations of several hydrological cycle components. The results showed good model performance for snow accumulation and snowmelt compared to the field observations for four seasons during the period 2007-2011, with a small bias and normalised root mean square difference (NRMSD) ranging from 40 to 42 % for the subalpine conifer forests and from 31 to 67 % for the alpine tundra and treeline larch forest environments. Overestimation or underestimation of the peak SWE ranged from 1.6 to 29 %. Simulations matched well with the observed unfrozen moisture fluctuation in the top soil layer at a lodgepole pine site during the period 2006-2011, with a NRMSD ranging from 17 to 39 %, but with consistent overestimation of 7 to 34 %. Evaluations of seasonal streamflow during the period 2006-2011 revealed that the model generally predicted well compared to observations at the basin scale, with a NRMSD of 60 % and small model bias (1 %), while at the sub-basin scale NRMSDs were larger, ranging from 72 to 76 %, though overestimation or underestimation for the cumulative seasonal discharge was within 29 %. Timing of discharge was better predicted at the Marmot Creek basin outlet, having a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.58 compared to the outlets of the sub-basins where NSE ranged from 0.2 to 0.28. The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient of 0.15 and 0.17 for comparisons between the simulated groundwater storage and observed groundwater level fluctuation at two wells indicate weak but positive correlations. The model results are encouraging for uncalibrated prediction and indicate research priorities to improve simulations of snow accumulation at treeline, groundwater dynamics, and small-scale runoff generation processes in this environment. The study shows that improved hydrological cycle model prediction can be derived from improved hydrological understanding and therefore is a model that can be applied for prediction in ungauged basins.
An analysis of the local topographic setting of very small (<0.4 km 2 ) glaciers within a small region of the Monashee Mountains, British Columbia, was conducted to investigate its influence on recent changes in the extent of these glaciers. Net changes in glacier extent were determined from a detailed manual comparison of remotely sensed imagery acquired in 1951, 2001 and 2004. Most of the 86 glaciers included in the study showed no observable net change in area over the study period, while six glaciers retreated, four disappeared entirely and only one advanced. Indices derived to characterize elements of the local topographic setting that might affect the local mass balance suggest that most of the glaciers are situated in locations that favor ice preservation by enhancing mass input and/or reducing ablation rates. Glaciers situated in less favorable settings generally either decreased in area or disappeared. The results suggest that most of the glaciers studied have retreated as far as they are likely to under the climatic conditions of the late 20th century.
Net changes in glacier area in the region 50–51˚ N, 116–125˚W, which includes the Columbia and Rocky Mountains (1951/52–2001) and the Coast Mountains (1964/65–2002), were determined through a comparison of historic aerial photography and contemporary Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery. The volumes of individual glaciers were estimated using an empirical volume–area scaling relationship. The area of glaciers in the Coast Mountains decreased by 120±10km2, or 5%of the initial ice-covered area here. The areas of glaciers in the Columbia and Rocky Mountains decreased by 20 and 6km2 respectively, corresponding to relative changes in total area of –5% and –15%. The estimated total ice volume loss from the whole region was 13 ±3 km3. In all parts of the study area, the relative changes in area of individual glaciers showed considerable variability, while the smallest glaciers remained essentially unchanged. This suggests that local factors unique to individual glaciers largely determine their sensitivity to climatic change, and that the very small glaciers are collectively less sensitive to such change.
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