In the US, over 400 state and local incentives have been issued to increase the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) since 2008. This article quantifies the influence of key incentives and enabling factors like charging infrastructure and receptive demographics on PEV adoption. The study focuses on three central questions. First, do consumers respond to certain types of state level vehicle purchase incentives? Second, does the density of public charging infrastructure increase PEV purchases? Finally, does the impact of various factors differ for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), battery electric vehicles (BEV) and vehicle attributes within each category? Based on a regression of vehicle purchase data from 2008-2016, we found that tax incentives and charging infrastructure significantly influence per capita PEV purchases. Within tax incentives, rebates are generally more effective than tax credits. BEV purchases are more affected by tax incentives than PHEVs. The correlation of public charging and vehicle purchases increases with the battery-only driving range of a PHEV, while decreasing with increasing driving range of BEVs. Results indicate that early investments in charging infrastructure, particularly along highways; tax incentives targeting affordable BEVs and PHEVs with higher battery only range, and better reflection of the environmental cost of owning gasoline vehicles are likely to increase PEV adoption in the US.

Program for funding this project and providing connections with numerous transit agencies that led to key data and insight. We would like to thank the transit agencies that generously shared their electric load data, operational data, and technological insight. This project would not have been possible without data from the Transportation Cooperative Research Committee's 130 report and the shared vision from Meredith Linscott and Erik Bigelow. Likewise, we would like to thank our colleague at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Josh Eichman, who's field work with electric bus fleets proved invaluable. Other NREL colleagues, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt, Joyce McLaren, and Emma Elgqvist, helped us navigate the Utility Rate Database and better address the complex relationship between electric utility and bus fleet. Lisa Jerram of the American Public Transit Association and Andy Eiden of Portland General Electric shared perspectives that greatly benefited this study. Despite the large amount of help that we have received when writing this report, any potential errors are the fault of the authors.

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