Research on the relationship between the percentage of an ethnic minority population in a geographically defined area and majority members' prejudice typically reveals a positive covariation. This result supports threat theory. Recent studies, however, have demonstrated significant exceptions. Based on intergroup contact theory, the present study demonstrates with a German probability sample that an increase in the percentage of ethnic minority members affords the majority greater opportunity for intergroup contact and thus reduces the majority's prejudice. These results also falsify frequent political claims that an increase in the minority population above a particular threshold necessarily worsens intergroup relations. The data are discussed in the context of the divergence of our results from those of other studies. Whether threat or contact effects occur may depend on an array of moderators that require further testing.

Different types of prejudice are usually treated as separate constructs. We propose that they constitute a syndrome of group-focused enmity (GFE), that is, they are related to each other and share a common core that is strongly predicted by a generalized ideology of inequality. Furthermore, GFE components are supposed to have similar predictors and outcomes. An empirical test is presented using structural equation modeling on the syndrome, its causes, consequences, and structural stability over time. The study relies on three German cross-sectional probability samples (each N= 2,700) and a related panel study (2002, 2003, and 2004). The idea of a GFE syndrome is strongly supported. Future research is discussed, as well as alternative approaches of a common prejudice factor.

Furthering G. W. Allport's contentions for optimal contact, the authors introduce a new construct: the perceived importance of contact. They propose that perceived importance is the best proximal predictor of contact's reduction of prejudice. If individuals have opportunities for contact at work or in the neighborhood, their chances to have intergroup acquaintances and friends increase. Intergroup contact among acquaintances and friends can be perceived as more or less important, which in turn determines intergroup evaluations. A 1st study shows that the new measure of perceived importance is indeed distinct from established quantity and quality indicators. The results are cross-validated in a 2nd study that also sheds light on the meaning of importance. In 3rd and 4th studies, structural equation analyses and a meta-analysis support the hypotheses.

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In this study we investigate and explain the level and change of six elements of group-focused enmity (GFE; see Zick et al. 2008) in Germany between 2002 and 2006: racism, xenophobia, antiSemitism, homophobia, exclusion of homeless people and support for rights of the established. For the data analysis, a representative 4-year panel study of the adult non-immigrant German population collected during the years 2002-2006 is used, and the development of each GFE component is tested by using an unconditional second-order latent growth curve model (LGM) (with full information maximum likelihood, FIML). We find that the level of 5 of the 6 components (racism, xenophobia, anti-Semitism, homophobia, exclusion of homeless people) displays an increase at the beginning of the observed period followed by a decrease. However, the sixth aspect, rights of the established, displays a continuous linear increase over time. The different developmental pattern stands in contrast to Allport's hypothesis (1954) for the strong link between the components and their development over time. We try to explain this different developmental pattern by several sociodemographic characteristics. This is performed by using a conditional second-order latent growth curve model. This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in the journal AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis 2011 95(4):481-500 following peer review. It was first published online in this journal on October 18, 2011. The definitive publisher-authenticated version is available online at: between the components and their development over time. We try to explain this different developmental pattern by several sociodemographic characteristics. This is performed by using a conditional second-order latent growth curve model.