De-Industrialization: concept, causes, effects and the Brazilian case. This article aims to do a theoretical discussion about the term "de-industrialization" and its relationship with other concepts as "primarization" of exports and "Dutch disease". After that we will analyze the possible causes and effects of "de-industrialization". Finally, we analyze the Brazilian case, with a special attention over the economic literature about this issue.Keywords: structural change; industry; real exchange rate. JEL Classification: L6; O14; O54. INTRODUçãONos últimos anos tem-se observado uma preocupação crescente entre os economistas e o público em geral a respeito de um possível processo de desindustrialização da economia brasileira. Nesse contexto, podemos observar duas posições claramente definidas. De um lado, temos os assim chamados "novo-desenvolvimentistas" que defendem a tese de que a economia brasileira vem passando por um processo de desindustrialização nos últimos 20 anos, causado pela combinação Revista de Economia Política, vol 30, nº 2 (118), pp 219-232, abril-junho/2010 * Os autores agradecem a contribuição de Julio Sérgio Gomes de Almeida (Unicamp/IEDI) para a elaboração deste artigo.

The majority of economic literature tends to discuss economic development issues by analysing the industrial policy and other long-term development policies separate from short-term macroeconomic policy. However, development strategies require a close coordination of the macroeconomic regime with the industrial policy. In addition to Brazil, our analytical discussion and normative implications can be addressed to other developing countries also facing premature deindustrialisation. We propose an analytical discussion of the phenomena of industrialisation, deindustrialisation and reindustrialisation, including a discussion on the connection between the macroeconomic regime and industrial policy, both oriented to reindustrialisation and catching up. The main point is that both policy regimes must be closely coordinated with each other. Concerning the macroeconomic regime, we argue that consistent monetary, fiscal, wage and exchange rate policies are those which are able to not only keep price stabilisation, but also provide average real interest rates below the average real return rates on capital, a competitive real exchange rate and real wage rates increasing in accordance with labour productivity growth. As for industrial policy, theoretical and empirical evidence suggest strategies aimed at the diversification of production, processes and products, especially within the manufacturing sector and within tradable segments of the service sector.

We present a Kaldor-Thirlwall theoretical and empirical framework on the basic driving forces of the behaviour of productivity and economic development in the long-run. From the Kaldorian view, we anchor on the hypothesis that, by operating under static and dynamic economies of scale, the main sources of the growth of productivity of the economy as a whole come from the manufacturing sector. Yet, according to the so-called Thirlwall's Law, for a country to prevent from facing balance of payments contraints to growth in the long run and successfully catch up with the levels of income per capita and well-being of developed countries, it must maintain an income elasticity of demand for exports above the income elasticity of demand for imports. Based on these main hypotheses and some stylised facts observed and pioneered by Kaldor, we show some empirical evidence based on both descriptive statistics and econometric regressions for Brazil between 1970 and 2010. There are at least four clear indicators to suggest that Brazil has entered into a process of early de-industrialisation: i) the sharp drop in participation of the Brazilian manufacturing industry in total value added in the last decades; ii) its declining average yearly growth rate of labour productivity since the end of the 1990s; iii), the dramatic augmentation of the technological gap in all subsectors of the manufacturing industry, classified by technological intensity, since the end of the 1990s and; iv) the significant trade deficits in the manufacturing subsector of more technological intensity between 2006 and 2008. In addition, since our econometric estimates also show that there was a dramatic increase in the income elasticity of demand for imports (from 1.97 to 3.36) and a decrease in the income elasticity for exports between 1999 and 2010, compared with the 1980-1998 period (from 1.36 to 1.33), we can conclude that Brazil has already embarked on a trajectory of falling-behind and has been facing balance of payments constraints to growth in the long run. However, since our econometric estimation of the Kaldor-Verdoorn coefficient revealed that the Brazilian manufacturing industry operates under dynamic economies of scale, this result means that the Brazilian manufacturing industry has, in principle, potential to sustain economic growth in the long run. All these results have important economic policy implications. The most important is that there is still time to revert both the early de-industrialisation and falling behind path in favour of a catching up trajectory in the Brazilian economy, since there is a fine coordination between the long-term policies (industrial and technological policies, infrastructure and education policies, among others) and the short-term macroeconomic policies (monetary, fiscal and, especially, exchange rate policies) oriented to boost the technological content of both Brazilian manufacturing goods and exports.

Resumo Este artigo analisa as mudanças nas estratégias patrimoniais das empresas não-financeiras ao longo dos anos 2000 com base na literatura sobre financeirização e ciclo financeiro de Minsky. A análise empírica mostra que a repercussão interna da crise financeira internacional de 2008 resultou em um aumento na fragilidade financeira das empresas não financeiras (ENFs), o que explica em grande parte o quadro recessivo atual. A contribuição do artigo é mostrar a adequação da hipótese da fragilidade financeira de Minsky para explicar a reversão do ciclo expansivo de investimento observado em meado dos anos 2000 e como avança o processo de financeirização na economia brasileira.