The global‐scale decline of animal biodiversity (‘defaunation’) represents one of the most alarming consequences of human impacts on the planet. The quantification of this extinction crisis has traditionally relied on the use of IUCN Red List conservation categories assigned to each assessed species. This approach reveals that a quarter of the world's animal species are currently threatened with extinction, and ~1% have been declared extinct. However, extinctions are preceded by progressive population declines through time that leave demographic ‘footprints’ that can alert us about the trajectories of species towards extinction. Therefore, an exclusive focus on IUCN conservation categories, without consideration of dynamic population trends, may underestimate the true extent of the processes of ongoing extinctions across nature. In fact, emerging evidence (e.g. the Living Planet Report), reveals a widespread tendency for sustained demographic declines (an average 69% decline in population abundances) of species globally. Yet, animal species are not only declining. Many species worldwide exhibit stable populations, while others are even thriving. Here, using population trend data for >71,000 animal species spanning all five groups of vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fishes) and insects, we provide a comprehensive global‐scale assessment of the diversity of population trends across species undergoing not only declines, but also population stability and increases. We show a widespread global erosion of species, with 48% undergoing declines, while 49% and 3% of species currently remain stable or are increasing, respectively. Geographically, we reveal an intriguing pattern similar to that of threatened species, whereby declines tend to concentrate around tropical regions, whereas stability and increases show a tendency to expand towards temperate climates. Importantly, we find that for species currently classed by the IUCN Red List as ‘non‐threatened’, 33% are declining. Critically, in contrast with previous mass extinction events, our assessment shows that the Anthropocene extinction crisis is undergoing a rapid biodiversity imbalance, with levels of declines (a symptom of extinction) greatly exceeding levels of increases (a symptom of ecological expansion and potentially of evolution) for all groups. Our study contributes a further signal indicating that global biodiversity is entering a mass extinction, with ecosystem heterogeneity and functioning, biodiversity persistence, and human well‐being under increasing threat.

Variation in genome size spans multiple orders of magnitude among animals. Despite the longstanding debate regarding the adaptive value or costs of genomic complexity, genome size has been proposed to influence extinction risk under the rapidly changing environments of the Anthropocene. The main hypothesis suggests that genome enlargement increases the accumulation of deleterious mutations while reducing rates of organismal growth and development. These combined effects of larger genome size are predicted to trigger population declines that can lead to extinction, especially under rapidly changing environments that disrupt demographic resilience. Comparative evidence from terrestrial plants and across vertebrates has provided mixed support for this hypothesis. However, large‐scale comparative studies based on explicit phylogenetic approaches remain lacking. Using a global‐scale amphibian dataset and two recognised proxies of extinction risk (International Union for Conservation of Nature IUCN conservation categories and population trends), we test the prediction that genomes are larger (as estimated by C‐value) in species facing extinction risk. We combine these analyses with life‐history traits widely known to be implicated with extinctions (body size, fecundity), along with a range of environmental factors. Our phylogenetic analyses consistently failed to identify an effect of genome size on either of the two proxies for extinction risk. The only consistent predictor of extinction risk observed across models performed for amphibians combined and for orders separately was decreasing geographical range size. We also identified a role for larger body size, decreasing range of environmental temperature (for anurans) and increasing levels of UV‐B radiation (for salamanders) as drivers of increasing threat. Our study provides no support for the prediction that species with larger genomes suffer heightened risk of extinction. We discuss some fundamental limitations underlying the genome size‐extinction hypothesis, and suggest that it is not a promising avenue to elucidate the causes of biodiversity declines in the Anthropocene. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Aim:The emergence of large-scale patterns of animal body size is the central expectation of a wide range of (macro)ecological and evolutionary hypotheses. The drivers shaping these patterns include climate (e.g. Bergmann's rule), resource availability (e.g. 'resource rule'), biogeographic settings and niche partitioning (e.g. adaptive radiation).However, these hypotheses often make opposing predictions about the trajectories of body size evolution. Therefore, whether underlying drivers of body size evolution can be identified remains an open question. Here, we employ the most comprehensive global dataset of body size in amphibians, to address multiple hypotheses that predict patterns of body size evolution based on climatic factors, ecology and biogeographic settings to identify underlying drivers and their generality across lineages. Location: Global. Time Period: Present. Major Taxa Studied: Amphibians. Methods: Using a global dataset spanning 7270 (>87% of) species of Anura, Caudata and Gymnophiona, we employed phylogenetic Bayesian modelling to test the roles of climate, resource availability, insularity, elevation, habitat use and diel activity on body size. Results: Only climate and elevation drive body size patterns, and these processes are order-specific. Seasonality in precipitation and in temperature predict body size clines in anurans, whereas caecilian body size increases with aridity. However, neither of these drivers explained variation in salamander body size. In both anurans and caecilians, size increases with elevational range and with midpoint elevation in caecilians only. No effects of mean temperature, resource abundance, insularity, time of activity or habitat use were found.Main Conclusions: Precipitation and temperature seasonality are the dominant climatic drivers of body size variation in amphibians overall. Bergmann's rule is consistently rejected, and so are other alternative hypotheses. We suggest that the rationale sustaining existing macroecological rules of body size is unrealistic in amphibians and

The human-induced annihilation of modern biodiversity is dragging the planet into a mass extinction that has already altered patterns of life globally. Among vertebrates, over 500 species have become extinct or possibly extinct in the last five centuries - an extinction rate that would have taken several millennia without human intervention. Vertebrate extinctions have often been quantified as cumulative counts that reveal sharp increases in losses over time. Here, we quantify global tetrapod extinctions since the 1400s using numbers of species losses across successive and independent time periods until present. Our results reveal that extinctions were low and fundamentally restricted to islands in pre-industrial times, experiencing a significant increase and spread over continental mainland following the onset of the industrial revolution. Recent amphibian extinctions alarmingly exceed the extinctions of all tetrapods, while extinctions of island birds account for a third of all extinctions. Finally, we quantified the relationship between human population growth (HPG, as a proxy for aggregate human effects on the environment) and extinctions between 1800-2000, to then predict that an estimated 838 tetrapod species will go extinct between 2030-2100 based on United Nations HPG projections. These findings further warn humanity about the need to sustainably control HPG and the destructive impacts of rapid environmental change on ecosystems worldwide.