Aquatic species living in running waters are widely acknowledged to be vulnerable to climate-induced, thermal and hydrological fluctuations. Climate changes can interact with other environmental changes to determine structural and functional attributes of communities. Although such complex interactions are most likely to occur in a multiple-stressor context as frequently encountered in large rivers, they have received little attention in such ecosystems. In this study, we aimed at specifically addressing the issue of relative long-term effects of global and local changes on benthic macroinvertebrate communities in multistressed large rivers. We assessed effects of hydroclimatic vs. water quality factors on invertebrate community structure and composition over 30 years (1979-2008) in the Middle Loire River, France. As observed in other large European rivers, water warming over the three decades (+0.9 °C between 1979-1988 and 1999-2008) and to a lesser extent discharge reduction (-80 m(3) s(-1) ) were significantly involved in the disappearance or decrease in taxa typical from fast running, cold waters (e.g. Chloroperlidae and Potamanthidae). They explained also a major part of the appearance and increase of taxa typical from slow flowing or standing waters and warmer temperatures, including invasive species (e.g. Corbicula sp. and Atyaephyra desmarestii). However, this shift towards a generalist and pollution tolerant assemblage was partially confounded by local improvement in water quality (i.e. phosphate input reduction by about two thirds and eutrophication limitation by almost one half), explaining a significant part of the settlement of new pollution-sensitive taxa (e.g. the caddisfly Brachycentridae and Philopotamidae families) during the last years of the study period. The regain in such taxa allowed maintaining a certain level of specialization in the invertebrate community despite climate change effects.

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Although species traits have the potential to disentangle long-term effects of multiple, potentially confounded drivers in ecosystems, this issue has received very little attention in the literature. We aimed at filling this gap by assessing the relative effects of hydroclimatic and water quality factors on the trait composition of invertebrate assemblages over 30 years in the Middle Loire River (France). Using a priori predictions on the long-term variation of trait-based adaptations over the three decades, we evaluated the ability of invertebrate traits to indicate the effects of warming, discharge reduction and water quality improvement. Hydroclimatic and water quality factors contributed to up to 65% of the variation in trait composition. More than 70% of the initial trait response predictions made according to observed long-term hydroclimatic changes were confirmed. They supported a general climate-induced trend involving adapted resistance and resilience strategies. A partial confounding effect of water quality improvement acting on trophic processes was also highlighted, indicating that improved water quality management can significantly help to reduce some adverse effects of climate change. This trait-based approach can have wider implications for investigating long-term changes driven by multiple, potentially confounded factors, as frequently encountered in the context of global change.

The impact of climate change and of other anthropogenic pressures on the structure and composition of phytoplankton communities of large European rivers remains poorly documented. Here we report the findings of a study of the changes in the phytoplankton community of the middle segment of the river Loire over the past 24 years. An attempt is made to distinguish between the impact of changes acting at the local scale and that of those acting more globally. A dramatic reduction in phytoplankton abundance was observed, particularly in the mid -1990s; this was concomitant with an increase in the relative proportion of cyanobacteria. At the same time, the phytoplankton community displayed increasing richness and diversity, and little change in its size structure. All these changes seem to be related to local changes, in particular to the reduction in phosphorus concentrations, as well as to changes in climate, throughout modifications in the river discharge and water temperature. Interestingly, herbicide contamination also appeared to be of particular importance in explaining the unexpected increase in the proportion of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community after the 1990s. These findings suggest that combinations of numerous anthropogenic pressures acting at different spatial and temporal scales have led to a mix of predictable and unpredictable changes occurring in the phytoplankton community of the river Loire, with probable consequences for the trophic networks in this river.

Background: The prognostic assessment of older cancer patients is complicated by their heterogeneity. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of routine inflammatory biomarkers. Methods: A pooled analysis of prospective multicenter cohorts of cancer patients aged ≥70 was performed. We measured CRP and albumin, and calculated Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) and CRP/albumin ratio. The GPS has three levels (0 = CRP ≤ 10 mg/L, albumin ≥ 35 g/L, i.e., normal values; 1 = one abnormal value; 2 = two abnormal values). One-year mortality was assessed using Cox models. Discriminative power was assessed using Harrell’s C index (C) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Results: Overall, 1800 patients were analyzed (mean age: 79 ± 6; males: 62%; metastases: 38%). The GPS and CRP/albumin ratio were independently associated with mortality in patients not at risk of frailty (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] = 4.48 [2.03–9.89] for GPS1, 11.64 [4.54–29.81] for GPS2, and 7.15 [3.22–15.90] for CRP/albumin ratio > 0.215) and in patients at risk of frailty (2.45 [1.79–3.34] for GPS1, 3.97 [2.93–5.37] for GPS2, and 2.81 [2.17–3.65] for CRP/albumin ratio > 0.215). The discriminative power of the baseline clinical model (C = 0.82 [0.80–0.83]) was increased by adding GPS (C = 0.84 [0.82–0.85]; NRI events (NRI+) = 10% [2–16]) and CRP/albumin ratio (C = 0.83 [0.82–0.85]; NRI+ = 14% [2–17]). Conclusions: Routine inflammatory biomarkers add prognostic value to clinical factors in older cancer patients.