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Panic buying and hoarding express common human behavior in times of crisis. Early in COVID-19, as the pandemic crisis intensified, toilet paper was one of the emblematic cases of panic buying. Using a Geographic Information System (GIS) to cross official per capita income data and real toilet paper transactions obtained from groceries spread around the city of São Paulo (Brazil), this study compares sales levels during the period in which panic purchases took place to the sales levels off that period. As expected, that data disclose noticeable panic buying. Regression analysis reveals that there is a significant positive correlation between average income per capita and panic buying. The results also indicate that panic buying happens in every income class, including low-income ones and contribute to enhancing the understanding of demand behavior during periods of crisis.

In 2020, just before measures were established by governments to minimize the spread of SARS-CoV-2, such as social distancing, quarantine, lockdowns, and internal movement restrictions, people began to buy some products in quantities much superior to their regular needs. This behavior is called panic buying and is a typical human response in times of crisis and uncertainty. This study compares retail sale levels during the period in which panic purchases occurred to the sales levels before and after that period. We analyzed the sales of five groups of products from 144 stores of two major retailers in São Paulo, Brazil. Several regression models were used to evaluate the data obtained from demographic information, actual sales, per capita income, and product sales transactions. The results show that sales before, during, and after the panic buying period varied according to the product type and increased according to the average per capita income of each store’s influence area. These results may assist policymakers in introducing public policies and managing resources during a crisis that requires social distancing and lockdowns.

ResumoEsta pesquisa objetiva realizar um estudo de "Transporte Colaborativo" para grandes volumes, especificamente para conjugação de cargas no transporte rodoviário. A proposta é desenvolver uma metodologia capaz de conciliar e flexibilizar as restrições impostas pelas janelas de tempo, de modo a interferir nos níveis hierárquicos de decisão, minimizando gastos em fretes e consolidando os conceitos de transporte colaborativo em uma aplicação real. No nível estratégico: contribuir no planejamento dos locais de armazenagem; no nível tático: determinar o momento e origem da retirada; e no nível operacional: tratar especificamente a execução da conjugação das cargas. A aplicação ocorre suportada por um banco de dados com 411.852 registros, utilizando modelagem matemática para um caso no agronegócio brasileiro. Os resultados obtidos são muito satisfatórios e projetarão redução no frete rodoviário da ordem de R$ 12,7 milhões por ano, na base de dados coletada, se a metodologia aqui proposta for implantada em sua plenitude.Palavras-chave: transporte rodoviário; colaboração; logística colaborativa. AbstractThis research proposes to carry out a study of Collaboration Transportation of large volumes, especially for conjugation of cargoes in the trucking transportation. This work presents a capable methodology to reconcile the needs of the transport with the imposed time windows restraints, coming to help in those restraints to interfere in hierarchy the decision levels. The interface in the strategic level is to contribute in the planning time of storage; the tactical planning level is to determination of the time windows and origin; the operational level is the specific operation from the conjugation of the shipments. The available primary database for the application to this case possesses 411.852 that support the application study in using a mathematical model. The results obtained were very satisfactory. Those results project a freight reduction about R$ 12,7 million per year, in the database available, if the methodology will be totally established.

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