Recruitment from seeds is among the most vulnerable stage for plants as global temperatures change. While germination is the means by which the vast majority of the world's flora regenerate naturally, a framework for accurately predicting which species are at greatest risk of germination failure during environmental perturbation is lacking. Taking a physiological approach, we assess how one family, the Cactaceae, may respond to global temperature change based on the thermal buffering capacity of the germination phenotype. We selected 55 cactus species from the Americas, all geo-referenced seed collections, reflecting the broad environmental envelope of the family across 70° of latitude and 3700 m of altitude. We then generated empirical data of the thermal germination response from which we estimated the minimum (T ), optimum (T ) and ceiling (T ) temperature for germination and the thermal time (θ ) for each species based on the linearity of germination rate with temperature. Species with the highest T and lowest T germinated fastest, and the interspecific sensitivity of the germination rate to temperature, as assessed through θ , varied tenfold. A left-skewed asymmetry in the germination rate with temperature was relatively common but the unimodal pattern typical of crop species failed for nearly half of the species due to insensitivity to temperature change at T . For 32 fully characterized species, seed thermal parameters correlated strongly with the mean temperature of the wettest quarter of the seed collection sites. By projecting the mean temperature of the wettest quarter under two climate change scenarios, we predict under the least conservative scenario (+3.7°C) that 25% of cactus species will have reduced germination performance, whilst the remainder will have an efficiency gain, by the end of the 21st century.

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Soil seed banks are essential elements of plant population dynamics, enabling species to maintain genetic variability, withstand periods of adversity and persist over time, including for cactus species. However knowledge of the soil seed bank in cacti is scanty. In this study, over a 5-year period we studied the seed bank dynamics, seedling emergence and nurse plant facilitation of Polaskia chende, an endemic columnar cactus of central Mexico. P. chende seeds were collected for a wild population in Puebla, Mexico. Freshly collected seeds were sown at 25 °C and 12-h photoperiod under white light, far-red light and darkness. The collected seeds were divided in two lots, the first was stored in the laboratory and the second was use to bury seeds in open areas and beneath a shrub canopy. Seeds were exhumed periodically over 5 years. At the same time seeds were sown in open areas and beneath shrub canopies; seedling emergence and survival were recorded over different periods of time for 5 years. The species forms long-term persistent soil seed banks. The timing of seedling emergence via germination in the field was regulated by interaction between light, temperature and soil moisture. Seeds entered secondary dormancy at specific times according to the expression of environmental factors, demonstrating irregular dormancy cycling. Seedling survival of P. chende was improved under Acacia constricta nurse plants. Finally, plant facilitation affected the soil seed bank dynamics as it promoted the formation of a soil seed bank, but not its persistence.