Many engineers effect “probabilistic life prediction” by replacing constants with probability distributions and carefully modeling the physical relationships among the parameters. Surprisingly, the statistical relationships among the “constants” are often given short shrift, if not ignored altogether. Few recognize that while this simple substitution of distributions for constants will indeed produce a nondeterministic result, the corresponding “probabilities” are often woefully inaccurate. In fact, even the “trend” can be wrong, so these results can't even be used for sensitivity studies. This paper explores the familiar Paris equation relating crack growth rate and applied stress intensity to illustrate many statistical realities that are often ignored by otherwise careful engineers. Although the examples are Monte Carlo, the lessons also apply to other methods of probabilistic life prediction, including FORM/SORM (First/Second Order Reliability Method) and related “fast probability integration” methods.

Several known mammalian ribonucleotide reductase inhibitors featuring a polyhydroxyphenyl and/or hydroxamate moiety as the active group were screened for potency in inhibiting growth of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. Compounds containing a 2,3- or 3,4-dihydroxyphenyl group as well as benzohydroxamate appear to be the most effective inhibitors of the malaria parasite.

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Increasingly accurate life prediction models are required to utilize the full capability of current and future advanced materials in gas turbine engines. Of particular recent interest are predictions of the lifetimes of engine airfoil materials that experience significant intervals of high-frequency, high-cycle fatigue (HCF). Conventional life management practices for HCF in the turbine engine industry have been based principally on a total-life approach. There is a growing need to develop damage tolerance methods capable of predicting the evolution and growth of HCF damage in the presence of foreign object damage (FOD), low cycle fatigue (LCF), and surface fretting fatigue.To help identify key aspects of the HCF life prediction problem for turbine engine components, a review is presented of the extensive results of an Air Force research contract with Pratt & Whitney on the high strength titanium alloy Ti-8AI-IMo-IV. Data from this representative turbine-airfoil material are used to examine the applicability of linear elastic fracture mechanics methods for prediction of service lifetimes under load spectra that include high cycle fatigue. The roles of fatigue crack initiation and growth are examined for materials that are nominally-defect-free, as well for materials that have experienced significant prior structural damage. An assessment is presented of the potential utility of the conventional threshold stress intensity factor range, AKth, defined by testing specimens containing large cracks. Although the general utility of a large-crack-AKth approach is questionable due to the potentially rapid growth of small fatigue cracks, the low allowable stresses involved in turbine engine high cycle fatigue appear to limit and simplify the small-crack problem. An examination is also presented of the potential effects of high-cycle fatigue and low-cycle fatigue (HCF/LCF) interactions.

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