Summaryobjective To evaluate a new method of deriving the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases from the early epidemic curves for vector-borne diseases with incubations in the vectors and in the hosts.method We applied the model to several dengue epidemics in different climatic regions of Brazil: Brasilia, Belém, Fortaleza, Boa Vista.results The new method leads to higher estimates of the reproductive number than previous models. conclusion At present, Aedes aegypti densities, the meeting of more compatible strains of viruses and mosquitoes, may lead to re-emergence of urban yellow fever epidemics.keywords vector borne diseases, reproductive number, dengue, yellow fever, Brazil

Highlights Quantitative estimates of climate at a key South African site over the past 20 kyr. Reconstructed trends show strong links with regional sea-surface temperatures. Reconstructions indicate interhemispheric synchrony in the African tropics. Findings do not support the hypothesis of direct insolation forcing of tropical African climates. Highlights a promising technique for analyzing palaeobotanical data in the region.

The importance of spatial heterogeneity and spatial scales (at a village or neighbourhood scale) has been explored with individual-based models. Our reasoning is based on the Chilean Easter Island (EI) case, where a first dengue epidemic occurred in 2002 among the relatively small population localized in one village. Even in this simple situation, the real epidemic is not consistent with homogeneous models. Conversely, including contact heterogeneity on different scales (intra-households, inter-house, inter-areas) allows the recovery of not only the EI epidemiological curve but also the qualitative patterns of Brazilian urban dengue epidemic in more complex situations.