For this paper, I use the ARIMA model to study the relationship between business performance and exchange rate fluctuations. Through this model, the empirical results shows that the influences of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on the tourist hotel business performance are significant and different across currencies and firms. Furthermore, according to the framework of Kim (2013) we employ the modern portfolio theory proposed by Markowitz (1952) to give an optimal foreign exchange allocation for each tourist hotel company's financial decision-makers, which will avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations expose and reduce losses due to the fluctuations of exchange rates, and complete the construction of enterprise risk management system (ERM).