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The effectiveness of local spatial dependence in shaping the population density distribution is investigated. Individual location preferences are modelled by considering the status-related features of a given spatial unit and its neighbours as well as local random spatial dependence. The novelty is framing such a dependence through conditionally autoregressive (CAR) census random effects that are added to a spatially lagged explanatory variable X (SLX) setting. The results not only confirm that controlling for the spatial dimension is relevant but also indicate that local spatial dependence warrants consideration when determining the population distribution of recent decades. In this respect, the framework turns out to be useful for the analysis of microdata in which individual relationships (in a same spatial unit) enforce local spatial dependence.

In this paper, we propose a recursive approach to estimate the spatial error model. We compare the suggested methodology with standard estimation procedures and we report a set of Monte Carlo experiments which show that the recursive approach substantially reduces the computational effort affecting the precision of the estimators within reasonable limits. The proposed technique can prove helpful when applied to real-time streams of geographical data that are becoming increasingly available in the big data era. Finally, we illustrate this methodology using a set of earthquake data.

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