For Shenyang, the central city of Northeast China, its municipal-level Territorial Spatial Planning is of great significance to the whole of Northeast China. Territorial Spatial Planning is an essential carrier of China’s ecological civilization construction. The demarcation of “three districts and three lines” defines the scope of ecological protection areas, which is of guiding significance to the future development of ecological civilization construction. The regional ecological vulnerability assessment can provide reference for ecological pattern planning and the demarcation of ecological red lines in “three districts and three lines”. In order to explore the spatial distribution pattern of ecological vulnerability in Shenyang, predict the development trend of ecological vulnerability in the future and guide the construction of ecological civilization in Shenyang and provide certain basis for Shenyang’s Territorial Spatial Planning and the delineation of “three districts and three lines”. This paper based on the “sensitivity-resilience-pressure” model selected 13 indexes, to evaluate the ecological vulnerability of Shenyang from 2010 to 2020. Furthermore, the spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of ecological vulnerability in Shenyang are summarized using spatial autocorrelation analysis and geographic detector model, and the future development trend of ecological vulnerability in Shenyang in 2025 is predicted by using CA-Markov model. The results show that: (1) In 2010, 2015 and 2020, the total area of slightly vulnerable areas in Shenyang was large, and the ecological vulnerability showed a gradually vulnerable spatial change trend from south to north and from west to east. (2) The results of geographical detectors show that normalized difference vegetation index, economic density and nighttime light intensity are the main driving factors of ecological vulnerability in Shenyang. (3) The forecast result of CA-Markov model is reliable. In 2025, the ecological vulnerability of Shenyang will be mainly light and extreme vulnerability areas, and the areas of light and extreme vulnerability areas will increase in 2025. The research results can provide some reference for the delineation of “three districts and three lines” and ecological protection in Shenyang’s Territorial Spatial Planning, and have certain significance for promoting regional sustainable development and balancing ecological protection and economic development.

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As China’s main grain-producing region, the ecological security pattern of Liaoning Province has an extremely important impact on the ecological security of Northeast China and even the whole country. Furthermore, the construction of the ecological security pattern is restricted by the ecological vulnerability assessment in order to explore the ecological vulnerability pattern of spatial distribution and the trend of future vulnerability development in Liaoning Province and guide how to formulate ecological protection policies scientifically. Based on the sensitivity–resilience–pressure (SRP) conceptual model which is combined with natural and socio-economic factors, the ecological vulnerability evaluation index system of Liaoning Province is established in this paper. This paper also evaluates the ecological vulnerability of Liaoning Province from 2010 to 2020 and analyzes the driving factors by using a geographic detector and the CA-Markov model. Moreover, the study forecasts the growing tendency of vulnerability in 2025. The results show that (1) the ecological vulnerability of Liaoning Province is mainly light and has medium vulnerability, which gradually decreases from northwest to southeast; (2) the spatial heterogeneity of the ecological vulnerability index (EVI) is very significant in the southeast and northwest region but not significant in the middle; (3) from the past decade to the next five years, the ecological vulnerability of Liaoning Province has been improving, and the overall distribution pattern of ecological vulnerability is relatively stable; (4) the analysis of driving factors indicates that the impact of natural environmental factors such as land-use type and habitat quality on EVI is more significant than socio-economic factors such as population density. The research results implicate that it is necessary to formulate an ecological protection and restoration plan in Liaoning Province to prevent further ecological degradation in high-value areas of northwest Liaoning, and to balance the relationship between human development and ecological protection and restoration in the metropolitan district.