Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Are Fundamentals Enough? Explaining Price Variations in the German Day-Ahead and Intraday Power MarketBy Christian Pape*, Simon Hagemann and Christoph Weber AbstractEuropean electricity market participants are encouraged to balance intraday deviations from their day-ahead schedules via trades in the intraday market. Together with the increasing production of variable renewable energy sources, the intraday market is gaining importance. We investigate the explanatory power of a fundamental modeling approach explicitly accounting for mustrun operations of combined heat and power plants (CHP) and intraday peculiarities such as a shortened intraday supply stack. The fundamental equilibria between every hour's supply stack and aggregated demand in 2012 and 2013 are modeled to yield hourly price estimates. The major benefits of a fundamental modeling approach are the ability to account for non-linearities in the supply stack and the ability to combine time-varying information consistently. The empirical results show that fundamental modeling explains a considerable share of spot price variance. However, differences between the fundamental and actual prices persist and are explored using regression models. The main differences can be attributed to (avoided) start up-costs, market states and trading behavior.

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An increasing share of variable renewable energy sources (VREs) basically affects the electricity price formation in two ways: (1) The so-called merit order effect tends to lower the base price level and challenges conventional plants to remain profitable. (2) Due to the variable nature of renewable energy infeed, the shortterm demand for flexibility increases and changes the volatility of electricity prices. The more variable prices offer opportunities for controllable electricity producers (CEPs) to provide up-and down-ramping flexibility to increase their revenues. In contrast, the VREs with high degrees of simultaneity tend to pay for this flexibility in the electricity spot market to reduce their imbalance exposure. The intraday market (IDM) for electricity has gained importance for the market value of different technologies lately and continues to expand due to the increasing efforts to balance within-day deviation from day-ahead schedules. This article presents a combination and extension of two existing models to capture the peculiarities of the intraday price formation and to analyse the impact of the IDM on the market value of VREs and CEPs. Doing so, the paper suggests an adjustment of the classical market value factor metric and to go beyond classical day-ahead market (DAM) information. The article shows that market value factors (MVFs) can be stabilized if the IDM delivers 'marketbased' price signals for the costs of flexibility, that are sufficient to activate flexibilities prior to the usually more expensive imbalance mechanism (IBM). Yet, the MVFs from single VRE technologies will worsen if their market share is high enough to outweigh forecast errors from other technologies and if they become a permanent price maker in the IDM and the IBM.

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