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Switching energy demand for transport from liquid fuels to electricity is the most promising way to significantly improve air quality and reduce transport emissions. Previous studies have shown this is possible, that by 2035 the economics of alternative powertrain and energy vectors will have converged. However, they do not address whether the transition is likely or plausible. Using the UK as a case study, we present a systems dynamics model based study informed by transition theory and explore the effects of technology progress, policy-making, user preferences and; for the first time, automated vehicles on this transition. We are not trying to predict the future but to highlight what is necessary in order for different scenarios to become more or less likely. Worryingly we show that current policies with the expected technology progress and expectations of vehicle buyers are insufficient to reach global targets. Faster technology progress, strong financial incentives or a change in vehicle buyer expectations are crucial but still insufficient. In contrast, the biggest switch to alternatively fuelled vehicles could be achieved by the introduction of automated vehicles. The implications will affect policy makers, automotive manufactures, technology developers and broader society.

Energy system decarbonisation and changing consumer behaviours will create and destroy new markets in the electric power sector. This means that the energy industry will have to adapt their business models in order to capture these pools of value. Recent work explores how changes to the utility business model that include digital, decentralised or service-based offers could both disrupt the market and accelerate low carbon transitions. However, it is unclear whether these business models are technologically feasible. To answer this question, we undertook an expert panel study to determine the readiness levels of key enabling technologies. The result is an analysis of what technologies may hinder electricity business model innovation and where more research or development is necessary. The study shows that none of the business models that are compatible with a low carbon power sector are facing technology barriers that cannot be overcome, but there is still work to be done in the domain of system integration. We conclude that, especially in the field of energy system coordination and operation, there is a need for comprehensive demonstration trials which can iteratively combine and test information and communications technology (ICT) solutions. This form of innovation support would require a new approach to energy system trials.