Recent shifts in phenology in response to climate change are well established but often poorly understood. Many animals integrate climate change across a spatially and temporally dispersed annual life cycle, and effects are modulated by ecological interactions, evolutionary change and endogenous control mechanisms. Here we assess and discuss key statements emerging from the rapidly developing study of changing spring phenology in migratory birds. These well-studied organisms have been instrumental for understanding climate-change effects, but research is developing rapidly and there is a need to attack the big issues rather than risking affirmative science. Although we agree poorly on the support for most claims, agreement regarding the knowledge basis enables consensus regarding broad patterns and likely causes. Empirical data needed for disentangling mechanisms are still scarce, and consequences at a population level and on community composition remain unclear. With increasing knowledge, the overall support ('consensus view') for a claim increased and between-researcher variability in support ('expert opinions') decreased, indicating the importance of assessing and communicating the knowledge basis. A proper integration across biological disciplines seems essential for the field's transition from affirming patterns to understanding mechanisms and making robust predictions regarding future consequences of shifting phenologies.

Migratory animals are threatened by human-induced global change. However, little is known about how stopover habitat, essential for refuelling during migration, affects the population dynamics of migratory species. Using 20 years of continent-wide citizen science data, we assess population trends of ten shorebird taxa that refuel on Yellow Sea tidal mudflats, a threatened ecosystem that has shrunk by >65% in recent decades. Seven of the taxa declined at rates of up to 8% per year. Taxa with the greatest reliance on the Yellow Sea as a stopover site showed the greatest declines, whereas those that stop primarily in other regions had slowly declining or stable populations. Decline rate was unaffected by shared evolutionary history among taxa and was not predicted by migration distance, breeding range size, non-breeding location, generation time or body size. These results suggest that changes in stopover habitat can severely limit migratory populations.

Evidence is accumulating that winter habitats occupied by migratory birds produce differences in individual condition that can carry over into subsequent stages of the annual cycle. Despite strong observational evidence, experimental work is needed to strengthen support for this hypothesis. We experimentally upgraded individual American Redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) from low‐quality second‐growth scrub habitat to high‐quality mangrove forest habitat by permanently removing behaviorally dominant, primarily adult males from mangrove, allowing females and immature males from scrub to colonize vacated territories. Prior to the manipulation, upgraded and control redstarts had stable‐carbon isotope values in their blood indicative of scrub habitat occupancy and were comparable in body mass. Relative to control birds that overwintered exclusively in scrub, upgraded redstarts incorporated mangrove isotopic signatures, maintained body mass from winter to spring, departed earlier on spring migration, and returned at a higher rate in the following winter. Furthermore, insect biomass on upgrade territories was significantly greater than on control territories, suggesting food availability as a proximate mechanism underlying gradients of nonbreeding habitat suitability. Findings here demonstrate that winter habitat occupancy can be an important determinant of individual performance in migratory birds. Restricted access to food‐rich winter habitats may limit survival of females and immature males, an outcome that could be an important driver of population structure and dynamics.