The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.

Less than half of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere. While carbon balance models imply large carbon uptake in tropical forests, direct on-the-ground observations are still lacking in Southeast Asia. Here, using long-term plot monitoring records of up to half a century, we find that intact forests in Borneo gained 0.43 Mg C ha−1 per year (95% CI 0.14–0.72, mean period 1988–2010) in above-ground live biomass carbon. These results closely match those from African and Amazonian plot networks, suggesting that the world’s remaining intact tropical forests are now en masse out-of-equilibrium. Although both pan-tropical and long-term, the sink in remaining intact forests appears vulnerable to climate and land use changes. Across Borneo the 1997–1998 El Niño drought temporarily halted the carbon sink by increasing tree mortality, while fragmentation persistently offset the sink and turned many edge-affected forests into a carbon source to the atmosphere.

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Question: The evolution of general flowering and mast fruiting of dipterocarps in tropical rain forest has been explained by different mechanisms. We studied whether the abundance of flowering conspecifics influences the recruitment success of tropical forest trees in Borneo. Location: Sepilok Forest Reserve, Sabah, Malaysia. Method: We examined the recruitment success of 17 species of Dipterocarpaceae in a 640–ha sample area over two flowering events in 2001–2002 using seed traps and quadrats. Seed predation experiments were used to investigate if post‐dispersal seed survival was density‐dependent. Results: We found a negative relationship between the percentage of flowers abscised per individual and the number of flowering conspecifics and a positive relationship between the percent of flowering trees that produced viable seeds and the number of flowering conspecifics. However, we found no evidence of decreasing pre‐ and post‐dispersal predation with increasing numbers of flowering conspecifics. High levels of flower abscission, and pre‐ and post‐dispersal seed mortality, resulted in near‐complete recruitment failure of most species, with only three species successfully recruiting in only one year. One of these, Parashorea tomentella, satiated seed predators over a large area, while Hopea beccariana and Shorea multiflora only recruited in small isolated clumps. Seed predation experiments suggest that post‐dispersal seed survival was positively density‐dependent in the short‐term. Conclusions: Increased density of flowering conspecifics may contribute to increased likelihood of successful cross‐pollination during low intensity flowering events and, in some cases, to enhanced probability of short‐term seed and seedling survival. Both processes may contribute to the evolution of mast fruiting and general flowering in Southeast Asian lowland dipterocarp forests.

BackgroundIn angiosperms, flower size commonly scales negatively with number. The ecological consequences of this trade-off for tropical trees remain poorly resolved, despite their potential importance for tropical forest conservation. We investigated the flower size number trade-off and its implications for fecundity in a sample of tree species from the Dipterocarpaceae on Borneo.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe combined experimental exclusion of pollinators in 11 species, with direct and indirect estimates of contemporary pollen dispersal in two study species and published estimates of pollen dispersal in a further three species to explore the relationship between flower size, pollinator size and mean pollen dispersal distance. Maximum flower production was two orders of magnitude greater in small-flowered than large-flowered species of Dipterocarpaceae. In contrast, fruit production was unrelated to flower size and did not differ significantly among species. Small-flowered species had both smaller-sized pollinators and lower mean pollination success than large-flowered species. Average pollen dispersal distances were lower and frequency of mating between related individuals was higher in a smaller-flowered species than a larger-flowered confamilial. Our synthesis of pollen dispersal estimates across five species of dipterocarp suggests that pollen dispersal scales positively with flower size.Conclusions and Their SignificanceTrade-offs embedded in the relationship between flower size and pollination success contribute to a reduction in the variance of fecundity among species. It is therefore plausible that these processes could delay competitive exclusion and contribute to maintenance of species coexistence in this ecologically and economically important family of tropical trees. These results have practical implications for tree species conservation and restoration. Seed collection from small-flowered species may be especially vulnerable to cryptic genetic erosion. Our findings also highlight the potential for differential vulnerability of tropical tree species to the deleterious consequences of forest fragmentation.