Recent models predict contrasting impacts of climate change on tropical and temperate species, but these models ignore how environmental stress and organismal tolerance change during the life cycle. For example, geographical ranges and extinction risks have been inferred from thermal constraints on activity during the adult stage. Yet, most animals pass through a sessile embryonic stage before reaching adulthood, making them more susceptible to warming climates than current models would suggest. By projecting microclimates at high spatio-temporal resolution and measuring thermal tolerances of embryos, we developed a life cycle model of population dynamics for North American lizards. Our analyses show that previous models dramatically underestimate the demographic impacts of climate change. A predicted loss of fitness in 2% of the USA by 2100 became 35% when considering embryonic performance in response to hourly fluctuations in soil temperature. Most lethal events would have been overlooked if we had ignored thermal stress during embryonic development or had averaged temperatures over time. Therefore, accurate forecasts require detailed knowledge of environmental conditions and thermal tolerances throughout the life cycle.

Animals that develop in shallow soils are susceptible to lethal temperatures during heat waves. We found that developing lizards from four populations entered cardiac arrest at temperatures above 46°C. Since temperatures of natural nests can presently exceed this limit, global warming would further reduce recruitment of young.

The mechanisms that set the thermal limits to life remain uncertain. Classically, researchers thought that heating kills by disrupting the structures of proteins or membranes, but an alternative hypothesis focuses on the demand for oxygen relative to its supply. We evaluated this alternative hypothesis by comparing the lethal temperature for lizard embryos developing at oxygen concentrations of 10-30%. Embryos exposed to normoxia and hyperoxia survived to higher temperatures than those exposed to hypoxia, suggesting that oxygen limitation sets the thermal maximum. As all animals pass through an embryonic stage where respiratory and cardiovascular systems must develop, oxygen limitation may limit the thermal niches of terrestrial animals as well as aquatic ones.

Although observations suggest the potential for phenotypic plasticity to allow adaptive responses to climate change, few experiments have assessed that potential. Modeling suggests that Sceloporus tristichus lizards will need increased nest depth, shade cover, or embryonic thermal tolerance to avoid reproductive failure resulting from climate change. To test for such plasticity, we experimentally examined how maternal temperatures affect nesting behavior and embryonic thermal sensitivity. The temperature regime that females experienced while gravid did not affect nesting behavior, but warmer temperatures at the time of nesting reduced nest depth. Additionally, embryos from heat-stressed mothers displayed increased sensitivity to high-temperature exposure. Simulations suggest that critically low temperatures, rather than high temperatures, historically limit development of our study population. Thus, the plasticity needed to buffer this population has not been under selection. Plasticity will likely fail to compensate for ongoing climate change when such change results in novel stressors.

The expression patterns of the transcription factor FOXP2 in the developing mammalian forebrain have been described, and some studies have tested the role of this protein in the development and function of specific forebrain circuits by diverse methods and in multiple species. Clinically, mutations in FOXP2 are associated with severe developmental speech disturbances, and molecular studies indicate that impairment of Foxp2 may lead to dysregulation of genes involved in forebrain histogenesis. Here, anatomical and molecular phenotypes of the cortical neuron populations that express FOXP2 were characterized in mice. Additionally, Foxp2 was removed from the developing mouse cortex at different prenatal ages using two Cre-recombinase driver lines. Detailed molecular and circuit analyses were undertaken to identify potential disruptions of development. Surprisingly, the results demonstrate that Foxp2 function is not required for many functions that it has been proposed to regulate, and therefore plays a more limited role in cortical development than previously thought.