The early Eocene (~55 to 50 Ma) is a time period which has been explored in a large number of modelling and data studies. Here, using an ensemble of previously published model results, making up "EoMIP" – the Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project – and syntheses of early Eocene terrestrial and sea surface temperature data, we present a self-consistent inter-model and model–data comparison. This shows that the previous modelling studies exhibit a very wide inter-model variability, but that at high CO2, there is good agreement between models and data for this period, particularly if possible seasonal biases in some of the proxies are considered. An energy balance analysis explores the reasons for the differences between the model results, and suggests that differences in surface albedo feedbacks, water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, and prescribed aerosol loading are the dominant cause for the different results seen in the models, rather than inconsistencies in other prescribed boundary conditions or differences in cloud feedbacks. The CO2 level which would give optimal early Eocene model–data agreement, based on those models which have carried out simulations with more than one CO2 level, is in the range of 2500 ppmv to 6500 ppmv. Given the spread of model results, tighter bounds on proxy estimates of atmospheric CO2 and temperature during this time period will allow a quantitative assessment of the skill of the models at simulating warm climates. If it is the case that a model which gives a good simulation of the Eocene will also give a good simulation of the future, then such an assessment could be used to produce metrics for weighting future climate predictions

Past studies of the end-Permian extinction (EPE), the largest biotic crisis of the Phanerozoic, have not resolved the timing of events in southern high-latitudes. Here we use palynology coupled with high-precision CA-ID-TIMS dating of euhedral zircons from continental sequences of the Sydney Basin, Australia, to show that the collapse of the austral Permian Glossopteris flora occurred prior to 252.3 Ma (~370 kyrs before the main marine extinction). Weathering proxies indicate that floristic changes occurred during a brief climate perturbation in a regional alluvial landscape that otherwise experienced insubstantial change in fluvial style, insignificant reorganization of the depositional surface, and no abrupt aridification. Palaeoclimate modelling suggests a moderate shift to warmer summer temperatures and amplified seasonality in temperature across the EPE, and warmer and wetter conditions for all seasons into the Early Triassic. The terrestrial EPE and a succeeding peak in Ni concentration in the Sydney Basin correlate, respectively, to the onset of the primary extrusive and intrusive phases of the Siberian Traps Large Igneous Province.

The early Eocene (~55 to 50 Ma) is a time period which has been explored in a large number of modelling and data studies. Here, using an ensemble of previously published model results, making up "EoMIP" – the Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project, and syntheses of early Eocene terrestrial and SST temperature data, we present a self-consistent inter-model and model-data comparison. This shows that the previous modelling studies exhibit a very wide inter-model variability, but that at high CO₂, there is good agreement between models and data for this period, particularly if possible seasonal biases in some of the proxies are considered. An energy balance analysis explores the reasons for the differences between the model results, and suggests that differences in surface albedo feedbacks, water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, and prescribed aerosol loading are the dominant cause for the different results seen in the models, rather than inconsistencies in other prescribed boundary conditions or differences in cloud feedbacks. The CO₂ level which would give optimal early Eocene model-data agreement, based on those models which have carried out simulations with more than one CO₂ level, is in the range 2000 ppmv to 6500 ppmv. Given the spread of model results, tighter bounds on proxy estimates of atmospheric CO₂ during this time period will allow a quantitative assessment of the skill of the models at simulating warm climates, which could be used as a metric for weighting future climate predictions

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The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 55 Ma) is of particular interest since it is regarded as a suitable analog to future climate change. In this study, the PETM climate is investigated using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) with atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of 43, 83, and 163 the preindustrial value.Simulated climate change from 43 to 83 atmospheric CO 2 concentration, possibly corresponding to an environmental precursor of the PETM event, leads to a warming of the North Atlantic Ocean Intermediate-Water masses, thus lowering the critical depth for methane hydrate destabilization by ;500 m. A further increase from 83 to 163CO 2 , analogous to a possible massive methane hydrate release, results in global oceanic warming and stratification. The increase in the radiative surface warming, especially at high latitudes, is partially offset by a decrease in the ocean heat transport due to a reduced overturning circulation. Surface temperature values simulated in the 163CO 2 PETM run represent the closest match to surface temperature reconstructions from proxies for this period.Simulated PETM precipitation, characterized by a slight northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, increases at higher CO 2 concentrations, especially for the northern midlatitudes as well as the high latitudes in both hemispheres. Data-inferred precipitation values and gradients for North America and Spain, for instance, are in good agreement with the 163CO 2 simulation. Increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations might also have favored the release of terrestrial methane through warmer and wetter conditions over land, thus reinforcing the greenhouse gas concentration increase.