In this paper, we propose different explicable forecasting approaches, based on inductive and evolutionary decision rules, for extreme low-visibility events prediction. Explicability of the processes given by the rules is in the core of the proposal. We propose two different methodologies: first, we apply the PRIM algorithm and evolution to obtain induced and evolved rules, and subsequently these rules and boxes of rules are used as a possible simpler alternative to ML/DL classifiers. Second, we propose to integrate the information provided by the induced/evolved rules in the ML/DL techniques, as extra inputs, in order to enrich the complex ML/DL models. Experiments in the prediction of extreme low-visibility events in Northern Spain due to orographic fog show the good performance of the proposed approaches.

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In this paper, new probabilistic and dynamic (adaptive) strategies for creating multi-method ensembles based on the coral reef optimization with substrate layers (CRO-SL) algorithm are proposed. CRO-SL is an evolutionary-based ensemble approach that is able to combine different search procedures for a single population. In this work, two different probabilistic strategies to improve the algorithm are analyzed. First, the probabilistic CRO-SL (PCRO-SL) is presented, which substitutes the substrates in the CRO-SL population with tags associated with each individual. Each tag represents a different operator which will modify the individual in the reproduction phase. In each generation of the algorithm, the tags are randomly assigned to the individuals with similar probabilities, obtaining this way an ensemble that sees more intense changes with the application of different operators to a given individual than CRO-SL. Second, the dynamic probabilistic CRO-SL (DPCRO-SL) is presented, in which the probability of tag assignment is modified during the evolution of the algorithm, depending on the quality of the solutions generated in each substrate. Thus, the best substrates in the search process will be assigned higher probabilities than those which showed worse performance during the search. The performances of the proposed probabilistic and dynamic ensembles were tested for different optimization problems, including benchmark functions and a real application of wind-turbine-layout optimization, comparing the results obtained with those of existing algorithms in the literature.

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