Impacts of nonindigenous crayfishes on ecosystem services exemplify the mixture of positive and negative effects of intentionally introduced species. Global introductions for aquaculture and ornamental purposes have begun to homogenize naturally disjunct global distributions of crayfish families. Negative impacts include the loss of provisioning (e.g., reductions in edible native species, reproductive interference or hybridization with native crayfishes), regulatory (e.g., lethal disease spread, increased costs to agriculture and water management), supporting (e.g., large changes in ecological communities), and cultural (e.g., loss of festivals celebrating native crayfish) services. Where quantification of impacts exists (e.g., Procambarus clarkii and Pacifastacus leniusculus in Europe), regulations now prohibit introduction and spread of crayfishes, indicating that losses of ecosystem services have outweighed gains. Recent research advances such as predicting invasiveness, predicting spread, improved detection and control, and bioeconomic analysis to increase cost-effectiveness of management could be employed to reduce future losses of ecosystem services.

Summary Early detection is invaluable for the cost‐effective control and eradication of invasive species, yet many traditional sampling techniques are ineffective at the low population abundances found at the onset of the invasion process. Environmental DNA (eDNA) is a promising and sensitive tool for early detection of some invasive species, but its efficacy has not yet been evaluated for many taxonomic groups and habitat types.We evaluated the ability of eDNA to detect the invasive rusty crayfish Orconectes rusticus and to reflect patterns of its relative abundance, in upper Midwest, USA, inland lakes. We paired conventional baited trapping as a measure of crayfish relative abundance with water samples for eDNA, which were analysed in the laboratory with a qPCR assay. We modelled detection probability for O. rusticus eDNA using relative abundance and site characteristics as covariates and also tested the relationship between eDNA copy number and O. rusticus relative abundance.We detected O. rusticus eDNA in all lakes where this species was collected by trapping, down to low relative abundances, as well as in two lakes where trap catch was zero. Detection probability of O. rusticus eDNA was well predicted by relative abundance of this species and lake water clarity. However, there was poor correspondence between eDNA copy number and O. rusticus relative abundance estimated by trap catches. Synthesis and applications. Our study demonstrates a field and laboratory protocol for eDNA monitoring of crayfish invasions, with results of statistical models that provide guidance of sampling effort and detection probabilities for researchers in other regions and systems. We propose eDNA be included as a tool in surveillance for invasive or imperilled crayfishes and other benthic arthropods.

Risk analysis of species invasions links biology and economics, is increasingly mandated by international and national policies, and enables improved management of invasive species. Biological invasions proceed through a series of transition probabilities (i.e., introduction, establishment, spread, and impact), and each of these presents opportunities for management. Recent research advances have improved estimates of probability and associated uncertainty. Improvements have come from species-specific trait-based risk assessments (of estimates of introduction, establishment, spread, and impact probabilities, especially from pathways of commerce in living organisms), spatially explicit dispersal models (introduction and spread, especially from transportation pathways), and species distribution models (establishment, spread, and impact). Results of these forecasting models combined with improved and cheaper surveillance technologies and practices [e.g., environmental DNA (eDNA), drones, citizen science] enable more efficient management by focusing surveillance, prevention, eradication, and control efforts on the highest-risk species and locations. Bioeconomic models account for the interacting dynamics within and between ecological and economic systems, and allow decision makers to better understand the financial consequences of alternative management strategies. In general, recent research advances demonstrate that prevention is the policy with the greatest long-term net benefit. 454 Lodge et al.

Aim Impacts of non-native species have motivated development of risk assessment tools for identifying introduced species likely to become invasive. Here, we develop trait-based models for the establishment and impact stages of freshwater fish invasion, and use them to screen non-native species common in international trade. We also determine which species in the aquarium, biological supply, live bait, live food and water garden trades are likely to become invasive. Results are compared to historical patterns of non-native fish establishment to assess the relative importance over time of pathways in causing invasions. Location Laurentian Great Lakes region.Methods Trait-based classification trees for the establishment and impact stages of invasion were developed from data on freshwater fish species that established or failed to establish in the Great Lakes. Fishes in trade were determined from import data from Canadian and United States regulatory agencies, assigned to specific trades and screened through the developed models.Results Climate match between a species' native range and the Great Lakes region predicted establishment success with 75-81% accuracy. Trophic guild and fecundity predicted potential harmful impacts of established non-native fishes with 75-83% accuracy. Screening outcomes suggest the water garden trade poses the greatest risk of introducing new invasive species, followed by the live food and aquarium trades. Analysis of historical patterns of introduction pathways demonstrates the increasing importance of these trades relative to other pathways. Comparisons among trades reveal that model predictions parallel historical patterns; all fishes previously introduced from the water garden trade have established. The live bait, biological supply, aquarium and live food trades have also contributed established non-native fishes.Main conclusions Our models predict invasion risk of potential fish invaders to the Great Lakes region and could help managers prioritize efforts among species and pathways to minimize such risk. Similar approaches could be applied to other taxonomic groups and geographic regions.

The increasing use of environmental DNA (eDNA) for determination of species presence in aquatic ecosystems is an invaluable technique for both ecology as a field and for the management of aquatic ecosystems. We examined the degradation dynamics of fish eDNA using an experimental array of recirculating streams, also using a "nested" primer assay to estimate degradation among eDNA fragment sizes. We introduced eDNA into streams with a range of water velocities (0.1-0.8 m s) and substrate biofilm coverage (0-100%) and monitored eDNA concentrations over time (∼10 d) to assess how biophysical conditions influence eDNA persistence. We found that the presence of biofilm significantly increased initial decay rates relative to previous studies conducted in nonflowing microcosms, suggesting important differences in detection and persistence in lentic vs lotic systems. Lastly, by using a nested primer assay that targeted different size eDNA fragments, we found that fragment size altered both the estimated rate constant coefficients, as well as eDNA detectability over time. Larger fragments (>600 bp) were quickly degraded, while shorter fragments (<100 bp) remained detectable for the entirety of the experiment. When using eDNA as a stream monitoring tool, understanding environmental factors controlling eDNA degradation will be critical for optimizing eDNA sampling strategies.