BackgroundChina’s sex ratio at birth (SRB) has declined in the past decade but still exceeds the normal level. This study seeks to depict the SRB trend in the past two decades.MethodsWe depicted the SRB trend, including SRB by birth order, children composition, residence and hukou type, education, race and province using latest data available from multiple data sources and standardisation and decomposition methods.ResultsThe SRB remained around 120 in the first decade from 2000 to 2010, and recently declined and approached the normal level during 2010–2020. The SRB for second births and first births converged to the normal level, whereas the SRB for third and above births exceeded the normal level. The rising proportion of second births increased, whereas the decreasing proportion of first births reduced the overall SRB. Parents with only daughters are more likely to abort a female fetus in pursuit of a son, while parents with only sons are more likely to abort a male fetus in pursuit of a daughter. It also shows difference in SRB by residence, hukou type, educational attainment and race. Urban SRB was lower than rural SRB, by the residence and hukou type, but higher than rural SRB after being standardised. Provinces still exhibit differences by original categorised policy even after the implementation of the universal two-child policy.ConclusionsChina’s SRB has declined substantially during the past two decades, but the negative effects need to be tackled.

China’s “one-child policy” that had been in force between 1980 and 2016 evolved over time and differed widely between regions. Local policies in many regions also targeted the timing and spacing of childbearing by setting the minimum age at marriage, first birth and second birth and defining minimum interval between births. Our study uses data from the 120 Counties Population Dynamics Monitoring System to reconstruct fertility level and timing in nine counties in Shandong province, which experienced frequent changes in birth and marriage policies. We reconstruct detailed indicators of fertility by birth order in 1986–2016, when policies on marriage and fertility timing became strictly enforced since 1989 and subsequently relaxed (especially in 2002) and abandoned (in 2013). Our analysis reveals that birth timing policies have fuelled drastic changes in fertility level, timing and spacing in the province. In the early 1990s period fertility rates plummeted to extreme low levels, with the provincial average total fertility rate falling below 1 in 1992–1995. Second births rates fell especially sharply. The age schedule of childbearing shifted to later ages and births became strongly concentrated just above the minimum policy age at first and second birth, resulting in a bimodal distribution of fertility with peaks at ages 25 and 32. Conversely, the abandonment of the province-level policy on the minimum age at marriage and first birth and less strict enforcement of the policy on the minimum age at second birth contributed to a recovery of period fertility rates in the 2000s and a shift to earlier timing of first and second births. It also led to a shorter second birth interval and a re-emergence of a regular age schedule of fertility with a single peak around age 28.

IntroductionIn recent decades, there has been a significant increase in childlessness. This paper analysed childlessness in China, specifically examining its socio and regional disparities.MethodsWith data from China’s 2020 population census, supplemented with data from China’s 2010 population census and 2015 inter-censual 1% population sample survey, we used a basic indicator of age-specific childlessness proportion, a decomposition method, and probability distribution models to analyse, fit and project childlessness.ResultsWe presented age-specific childlessness proportions for women as a whole and by socioeconomic features, decomposition and projection results. The childlessness proportion increased markedly from 2010 to 2020, reaching 5.16% for women aged 49. The proportion is highest for city women, followed by township women, and is lowest among village women, at 6.29%, 5.50% and 3.72 % for women aged 49, respectively. The proportion for women aged 49 with high college education or above was 7.98%, and only 4.42% for women with junior high school education. The proportion also exhibits marked provincial discrepancies, and the total fertility rate is negatively correlated with childlessness at the province level. The decomposition results distinguished the different contribution of change in educational structure and change in childlessness proportion for subgroups to the total childlessness proportion change. It is projected that city women, women with high education will have higher childlessness proportion, and the proportion will further increase with the rapid increase in education level and urbanisation.ConclusionsChildlessness has risen to a relatively high level, and varies among women with different characteristics. This should be taken into consideration in China’s countermeasures to reduce childlessness and curtail further fertility decline accordingly.