Variety release decisions usually involve trade-offs between growers and end-users as well as substantial uncertainties about agronomic, quality, and economic variables. In this paper, methodologies were developed to value grower and end-user characteristics for individual wheat varieties and to evaluate trade-offs. The models capture effects of variability in agronomic, quality, and economic variables and were applied to experimental and hypothetical varieties. Results indicate two experimental varieties provide improvements in grower and end-use value over most of the incumbents. Though applied to a specific grain and region, the approach is applicable to other grains and oilseeds that have multiple agronomic and quality attributes. F undamental trade-offs in breeding decisions typically involve yields, disease resistance, and quality. Gains in one area often involve losses in another. Growers want greater yields and disease resistance, without foregoing returns due to quality shortfalls. End-users desire higher quality for functional characteristics; however, varieties with these characteristics may or may not be agronomically competitive. Ultimately, decision-makers confront these trade-offs in making breeding and variety release decisions.Breeders also confront numerous sources of uncertainty. These include uncertainty in variety performance for agronomic and quality attributes, as well as prices including premiums and discounts for measurable characteristics that will be prevalent after varieties are released. Agronomic variables include yields Bruce L.

This study analyzes implications of a random quality factor, vomitoxin, on spatial flows and merchandising risk. Vomitoxin poses major risks for grain traders because of contract specifications, regulatory limits, sampling difficulties, and imprecise measurement. The effect of these were analyzed using crop quality and market data for the U.S. spring wheat crop, which has been severely affected by vomitoxin infestations during the 1990s. The analysis was structured as a blending problem with the objective of maximizing the net value of wheat sales. Relationships among market price spreads and contract specifications are interesting and their effects are demonstrated through simulations. I n many grain markets, price relationships, merchandising strategies, and spatial flows are influenced by quality factors. This is caused by the diverse quality requirements of foreign and domestic end users and variation in quality characteristics across producing regions. Heterogeneity in supply and demand for characteristics is a critical feature of grain handling and merchandising. Elevators segregate grain based on quality factors and enhance margins through blending and conditioning activities. Traders assemble grain from different producing regions with different quality characteristics to satisfy needs of individual buyers and to capture price premiums.However, quality variability creates uncertainty and risk for grain merchandisers. Interest on this topic was heightened by experiences during the 1990s in the spring wheat and barley markets. Weather conditions in 1993 led to a severe

This research was completed under a special USDAICSRS Special Grant 89-02580 titled "lnternutional Marketing and Trade Policies for Northern Grown Crops. " Diflerences between U.S. and Canadian marketing policies in malting barley have been identified as potential sources of trade distortions. Most important are issues related to quality control, yield di$erentials between feed and malting varieties, and diferences in handling costs. l%is study anaiyzes effects of changes in selected marketing policies on trade flows and p&es in the North American malting barley sector using a mathematical programming model. Simulation results illustrate impacts of relaxed variety release requirements, increased selection rates for malting barley, reduced Canadian handling costs and the effect of increased Canadian exports of malting barley to oflshore markets. lhe results quantify e$ects of these strategic issues on both the United States and Gmadian barley sectors. Les di$drences entre les regimes de commercialisation de l'orge de malterie-brasserie aux &ats-Unis et au Canada pourraient &tre la cause de distorsions des echanges commerciaux. Mentionnons en particulier les questions touchant le contrc%e de la qua&e, les diflerences de rendement entre les vat-i&t% four-rag&-es et les van'&% brassicoles et les diflerences a$ectant les coats de manutention. Au moyen d iut modele de programmation mathematique, nous analysons les effets de modifications affectant certaines politiques de commercialisation sur les flux des t?changes entre les deux pays et sur les prix aarts le secteur nord-am&icain de 1 'orge de brasserie. L.es simulations mettent en evidence les impacts d 'une reglementation plus souple des conditions & mise au commerce des vari&s, du relevement des criteres de selection pour 1 'orge brassicole, d 52ne diminution des cot&s de manutention canadien ainsi que 1 'e$et d 'un accroissement des exportations canadiennes d 'orge brassicole vers les marches d 'outremer. L.es resultats permettent de quantifier les effets de ces questions strategiques sur le secteur de 1 'orge du Canada et des ktats-Unis.

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