Context. Australia has a lamentable history of mammal extinctions. Until recently, the mammal fauna of northern Australia was presumed to have been spared such loss, and to be relatively intact and stable. However, several recent studies have suggested that this mammal fauna may be undergoing some decline, so a targeted monitoring program was established in northern Australia’s largest and best-resourced conservation reserve. Aims. The present study aims to detect change in the native small-mammal fauna of Kakadu National Park, in the monsoonal tropics of northern Australia, over the period of 1996–2009, through an extensive monitoring program, and to consider factors that may have contributed to any observed change. Methods. The small-mammal fauna was sampled in a consistent manner across a set of plots established to represent the environmental variation and fire regimes of Kakadu. Fifteen plots were sampled three times, 121 plots sampled twice and 39 plots once. Resampling was typically at 5-yearly intervals. Analysis used regression (of abundance against date), and Wilcoxon matched-pairs tests to assess change. For resampled plots, change in abundance of mammals was related to fire frequency in the between-sampling period. Key results. A total of 25 small mammal species was recorded. Plot-level species richness and total abundance decreased significantly, by 54% and 71%, respectively, over the course of the study. The abundance of 10 species declined significantly, whereas no species increased in abundance significantly. The number of ‘empty’ plots increased from 13% in 1996 to 55% in 2009. For 136 plots sampled in 2001–04 and again in 2007–09, species richness declined by 65% and the total number of individuals declined by 75%. Across plots, the extent of decline increased with increasing frequency of fire. The most marked declines were for northern quoll, Dasyurus hallucatus, fawn antechinus, Antechinus bellus, northern brown bandicoot, Isoodon macrourus, common brushtail possum, Trichosurus vulpecula, and pale field-rat, Rattus tunneyi. Conclusions. The native mammal fauna of Kakadu National Park is in rapid and severe decline. The cause(s) of this decline are not entirely clear, and may vary among species. The most plausible causes are too frequent fire, predation by feral cats and invasion by cane toads (affecting particularly one native mammal species). Implications. The present study has demonstrated a major decline in a key conservation reserve, suggesting that the mammal fauna of northern Australia may now be undergoing a decline comparable to the losses previously occurring elsewhere in Australia. These results suggest that there is a major and urgent conservation imperative to more precisely identify, and more effectively manage, the threats to this mammal fauna.

A previous study (Braithwaite & Muller 1997) reported substantial declines in mammal abundance over the period 1986-1993 for a large study area (300 km 2 ) within Kakadu National Park in the tropical savannas of northern Australia. This decline was reported as being a 'natural' response to fluctuating groundwater levels, driven by runs of poor wet seasons. We resampled mammals in this area in 1999, following a series of unusually good wet seasons, and examined the prediction that mammal numbers should have recovered. Increases in abundance were evident for four species: the smallest dasyurid (red-cheeked dunnart Sminthopsis virginiae) and the three smallest rodents (delicate mouse Pseudomys delicatulus, western chestnut mouse Pseudomys nanus and grassland melomys Melomys burtoni). In contrast, the abundance of all mammals combined and that for seven individual mammal species (northern quoll Dasyurus hallucatus, fawn antechinus Antechinus bellus, common brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula, northern brown bandicoot Isoodon macrourus, dusky rat Rattus colletti, black-footed tree-rat Mesembriomys gouldii and pale field rat Rattus tunneyi) continued to decline. The decline in abundance of these mammal species is consistent with limited observations elsewhere in northern Australia. Although far from conclusive, these observations suggest that the biota of the vast relatively undisturbed tropical savannas can no longer be assumed to be intact nor safe. Further research is needed to test this possible pattern of decline and, if confirmed, to identify and ameliorate the processes contributing to it.

Analysis of digitized aerial photographs taken in 1941 and 1994, using image processing and geographical information system technology, enabled the quantification of change in the coverage of forest and grassland patches that occur within a Eucalyptus savanna matrix in a subcoastal region of the Australian monsoon tropics. The 3058 ha study area was orientated along a low escarpment that separated a sandstone plateau from lowlands that comprised 58% and 42% of the area, respectively.  In the 53‐year period, humans modified less than 1% of the study area, primarily for road building, and primarily in savanna areas. More than 85% of the study area at both sample times was covered by savanna. However, over the same period, the forest coverage increased from 5.03% to 9.91% of the study area and coverage of grassland decreased from 6.70% to 2.47%. The aerial photography also showed that tree density in the savanna had increased, although this was not assessed quantitatively.  There was an increase in the number of forest patches from 116 to 142. The number of grassland patches decreased (particularly those > 1 ha) from 87 to 59, although the size class distribution of forest and grassland patches was statistically similar for both sample times.  A 50‐m GIS buffer was used to distinguish creek‐lines environments from surrounding catchments. Using this criterion, 14% of the study area was classified as plateau creek‐lines and 9% lowland creek‐lines. Although the expansion of forest and loss of grassland varied significantly amongst catchment and creek‐lines on the plateau and lowlands, the 1941 rank order of coverage of each vegetation type was maintained in these four landscape categories in 1994. In both years the greatest extent of forest and grassland occurred on the lowland catchments, despite their accounting for only one‐third of the study area.  Transition matrices for vegetation change among the four landscape categories demonstrated that, unlike the other vegetation types, grasslands, particularly on the plateau, had a low probability of remaining unchanged during the study period. The cause(s) of the overall increase of woody biomass across the topographic and edaphic gradient remains unclear but may be related to a period of increased rainfall since the 1970s, as well as to the cessation of Aboriginal landscape burning at the beginning of the study period.

No abstract

The abundance, richness and species composition of frog, reptile, bird and mammal faunas varied along an extensive gradient from 470 to 1406 mm annual rainfall, and between three contrasting soil types (clay, loam and sand) in northern Australia. Patterns varied between and within vertebrate classes. In general, the most fertile soils in the highest rainfall sites supported the greatest species richness and abundance, but this association with fertility broke down at lower rainfall sites. Frogs were richest and most abundant at high rainfall sites, especially on clay soils, presumably because these had greatest water availability. Clay soils supported few reptile species, but these were often at relatively high abundance. High rainfall sites supported the richest reptile faunas. On sand and loam soils, bird species richness varied little along the rainfall gradient, but richness declined very substantially on clay soils. This was probably largely due to the far more marked vegetation structural change on clay soils than on other substrates. Few mammals were reported, and no clear trends were associated with either rainfall gradient or soil texture. Turnover in species composition along the rainfall gradient was gradual and limited on sand and loam soils, but far more marked on clay soils. There were few cases of replacements of ecologically comparable species along the gradient. These patterns reflect the disparate history, fragmentation and landscape positioning of clay soil environments, relative to the far more homogeneous eucalypt-dominated vegetation on sand and loam soils. Although comparable studies are lacking on other continents, patterns revealed here may be idiosyncratic due to the virtual monopolisation by eucalypts of the environment across the very extensive rainfall gradient.