The production of wheat, a crop sensitive to weather, may be influenced by climate change. The regional vulnerability of wheat production to climate change in India was assessed by quantifying the impacts and adaptation gains in a simulation analysis using the InfoCrop-WHEAT model. This study projects that climate change will reduce the wheat yield in India in the range of 6 to 23% by 2050 and 15 to 25% by 2080. Even though the magnitude of the projected impacts is variable, the direction is similar in the climate scenarios of both a global (GCM-MIROC3.2.HI) and a regional climate model (RCM-PRECIS). Negative impacts of climate change are projected to be less severe in low-emission scenarios than in high-emission scenarios. The magnitude of uncertainty varies spatially and increases with time. Differences in sowing time is one of the major reasons for variable impacts on yield. Late-sown areas are projected to suffer more than the timely-sown ones. Considerable spatial variation in impacts is projected. Warmer central and south-central regions of India may be more affected. Despite CO 2 fertilization benefits in future climate, wheat yield is projected to be reduced in areas with mean seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures in excess of 27 and 13°C, respectively. However, simple adaptation options, such as change in sowing times, and increased and efficient use of inputs, could not only offset yield reduction, but could also improve yields until the middle of the century. Converting late-sown areas into timely-sown regions could further significantly improve yield even with the existing varieties in the near future. However, some regions may still remain vulnerable despite the adaptation interventions considered. Therefore, this study emphasises the need for intensive, innovative and location-specific adaptations to improve wheat productivity in the future climate.

A simulation study has been carried out using the InfoCrop mustard model to assess the impact of climate change and adaptation gains and to delineate the vulnerable regions for mustard (Brassica juncea (L.) Czernj. Cosson) production in India. On an all India basis, climate change is projected to reduce mustard grain yield by ~2 % in 2020 (2010–2039), ~7.9 % in 2050 (2040–2069) and ~15 % in 2080 (2070–2099) climate scenarios of MIROC3.2.HI (a global climate model) and Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS, a regional climate model) models, if no adaptation is followed. However, spatiotemporal variations exist for the magnitude of impacts. Yield is projected to reduce in regions with current mean seasonal temperature regimes above 25/10 °C during crop growth. Adapting to climate change through a combination of improved input efficiency, additional fertilizers and adjusting the sowing time of current varieties can increase yield by ~17 %. With improved varieties, yield can be enhanced by ~25 % in 2020 climate scenario. But, projected benefits may reduce thereafter. Development of short-duration varieties and improved crop husbandry becomes essential for sustaining mustard yield in future climates. As climatically suitable period for mustard cultivation may reduce in future, short-duration (<130 days) cultivars with 63 % pod filling period will become more adaptable. There is a need to look beyond the suggested adaptation strategy to minimize the yield reduction in net vulnerable regions

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