A method for short-term load forecasting which would help demand side management is presented. This is particularly suitable for developing countries where the total load is not large, especially at substation levels, and the data available are grossly inadequate. It is based on the Kalman filtering algorithm with the incorporation of a 'fading memory'. A twostage forecast is carried out, where the mean is first predicted and a correction is then incorporated in real time using an error feedback from the previous hours. This method has been used to predict the local load at l l k V and also the bulk load at 220kV. The results and the prediction errors are presented.

Ever since the emergence of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the usage of makeshift facemasks is generally advised by policymakers as a possible substitute for commercially available surgical or N95 face masks. Although such endorsements could be economical and easily accessible in various low per-capita countries, the experimental evidence on the effectiveness of such recommendations is still lacking. In this regard, we carried out a detailed experimental investigation to study the fate of a large-sized surrogate cough droplet impingement at different velocities (corresponding to mild to severe coughs) on various locally procured cloth fabrics. Observation shows that larger ejected droplets (droplets that would normally settle as fomites in general) during a coughing event have enough momentum to penetrate single-layer cloth masks; the penetrated volume atomize into smaller daughter droplets that fall within aerosol range, thereby increasing infection potential. Theoretically, two essential criteria based on the balances of viscous dissipation-kinetic energy and surface tension-kinetic energy effects have been suggested for the droplet penetration through mask layers. Furthermore, a new parameter called η (the number density of pores for a fabric) is developed to characterize the volume penetration potential and subsequent daughter droplet size. Finally, the effect of mask washing frequency is analyzed. The outcomes from the current study can be used as a guide in selecting cloth fabrics for stitching multi-layered.

Background Residual risk of ischaemic stroke despite anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains poorly investigated. We aimed to evaluate the incidence and risk factors for residual adverse events in AF. Methods Using data from phase II/III of the prospective GLORIA-AF registry, we studied anticoagulated patients from 935 centres across 38 participating who were consecutively enrolled with newly diagnosed AF and an increased risk of stroke (CHA2DS2-VASc ≥1). The primary outcome of interest was ischaemic stroke. Secondary outcomes were all-cause death, cardiovascular (CV) death and myocardial infarction. Risk factors for residual ischaemic stroke were identified using Cox proportional hazards analyses. Results 22410 patients were included; median age 65 (IQR 71–78) and 10044 (44.8%) females. Over 3.0 (IQR 2.2–3.1) years, the incidence per 100-PYs of ischaemic stroke was 0.60 (95% CI, 0.54–0.67), all-cause death 3.22 (95% CI, 3.08–3.37), CV death 1.08 (95% CI, 1.00–1.16) and myocardial infarction 0.59 (95% CI, 0.53–0.66). Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis, independent predictors of residual ischaemic stroke were age (HR 1.05 [95% CI, 1.03–1.06]), diabetes mellitus (HR 1.42 [95% CI, 1.09–1.85]), prior thromboembolism (HR 2.32 [95% CI, 1.79–3.00]), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR 1.53 [95% CI, 1.04–2.26]) and use of anti-arrhythmic drugs (HR 0.70 [95% CI, 0.51–0.96]). The incidence of ischaemic stroke was comparable among patients treated with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants vs. vitamin K antagonist; however, there were differences in the independent predictors between both groups. Conclusion Patients with AF remain at significant risk of ischaemic stroke despite anticoagulation therapy. Risk factors for residual ischaemic stroke were prior thromboembolism, age, persistent AF, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and non-use of anti-arrhythmic drug therapy. This emphasises the need to treat these risk factors, if modifiable, beyond antithrombotic therapy. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Of the various types of single-phase-to-three-phase static converters used to interface a three-phase motor to singlephase supply, one simple type uses an open delta connection of a sinusoidal supply and a pulsewidth modulated (PWM) waveform to feed the motor. This paper presents an analysis of the performance of the three-phase motor when fed from such an asymmetrical supply. The analysis is based on the steady-state approximate-equivalent circuit of the motor, using the method of symmetrical components. The analysis is directed toward prediction of motor phase and line currents, along with the nature of generated torque. The computer-simulated waveforms are presented and compared with results from tests on a laboratory setup.

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