Aim Species distribution models have been used frequently to assess the effects of climate change on mountain biodiversity. However, the value and accuracy of these assessments have been hampered by the use of low-resolution data for species distributions and climatic conditions. Herein we assess potential changes in the distribution and community composition of tree species in two mountainous regions of Spain under specific scenarios of climate change using data with a high spatial resolution. We also describe potential changes in species distributions and tree communities along the entire elevational gradient.Location Two mountain ranges in southern Europe: the Central Mountain Range (central west of the Iberian Peninsula), and the Iberian Mountain Range (central east).Methods We modelled current and future distributions of 15 tree species (Eurosiberian, sub-Mediterranean and Mediterranean species) as functions of climate, lithology and availability of soil water using generalized linear models (logistic regression) and machine learning models (gradient boosting). Using multivariate ordination of a matrix of presence/absence of tree species obtained under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (A2 and B2) for two different periods in the future (2041-70 and 2071-2100), we assessed the predicted changes in the composition of tree communities. ResultsThe models predicted an upward migration of communities of Mediterranean trees to higher elevations and an associated decline in communities of temperate or cold-adapted trees during the 21st century. It was predicted that 80-99% of the area that shows a climate suitable for coldwet-optimum Eurosiberian coniferous and broad-leaved species will be lost. The largest overall changes were predicted for Mediterranean species found currently at low elevations, such as Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinaster, Quercus ilex ssp. ballota and Juniperus oxycedrus, with sharp increases in their range of 350%.Main conclusions It is likely that areas with climatic conditions suitable for cold-adapted species will decrease significantly under climate warming. Large changes in species ranges and forest communities might occur, not only at high elevations within Mediterranean mountains but also along the entire elevational gradient throughout this region, particularly at low and mid-elevations. Mediterranean mountains might lose their key role as refugia for cold-adapted species and thus an important part of their genetic heritage.

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The Madrid Regional Government (Central Spain) proposes a zone of the Guadarrama Mountains to be declared as a National Park. This paper reports on the zoning method developed to this end. The procedure followed considers compatibility of land uses with landscape characteristics and proposes protecting a part of the zone through declaration of National Park status and declaring another part as a Regional Park. The approach is based upon a multivariate environmental analysis aimed at zoning for optimal location of potential activities. The zoning permits the design of protected areas following the criteria underlying the declaration of these two categories in accordance with the Spanish environmental legislation in force. A practical tool for policy decision-making is provided. However, the final decision taken by policymakers in the design and zoning of protected areas differed from the model output used by the scientists. This is discussed in the paper to illustrate the interactions between political decision-making and scientific modelling.

Since the end of the last glacial period, European Mediterranean mountains have provided shelter for numerous species of Eurosiberian and Boreal origin. Many of these species, surviving at the southern limit of their range in Europe and surrounded by Mediterranean ones, are relatively intolerant to summer drought and are in grave danger of loss, as a result of increasingly long and frequent droughts in this region. This is the case of the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and the Austrian pine (Pinus nigra ssp. salzmannii) which are found on Central Iberian Peninsula at the edge of their natural range. We used a tree ring network of these two species to reconstruct past variations in summer rainfall. The reconstruction, based upon a tree ring composite chronology of the species, dates back to 1570 (adjusted R 2 = 0.49, P < 0.000001) and captures interannual to decadal scale variability in summer precipitation. We studied the spatial representativeness of the rainfall patterns and described the occurrence rate of extremes of this precipitation. To identify associations between macroclimatic factors and tree radial growth, we employed a principal component analysis to calculate the resultant of the relationship between the growth data of both species, using this resultant as a dependent variable of a multiple regression whose independent variables are monthly mean temperature and precipitation from the average records. Spatial correlation patterns between instrumental precipitation datasets for southern Europe and reconstructed values for the 1950-1992 period indicate that the reconstruction captures the regional signal of drought variability in the study region (the origin of this precipitation is convective: thermal low pressure zones induced in the inland northeastern areas of the Iberian Peninsula). There is a clear increase in the recurrence of extreme dry events as from the beginning of twentieth century and an abrupt change to drier conditions. There appears to be a tendency toward recurrent exceptionally dry summers, which could involve a significant change for the Eurosiberian refugee species.