The first regional total electron content (TEC) model over the entire African region (known as AfriTEC model) using empirical observations is developed and presented. Artificial neural networks were used to train TEC observations obtained from Global Positioning System receivers, both on ground and onboard the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate satellites for the African region from years 2000 to 2017. The neural network training was implemented using inputs that enabled the networks to learn diurnal variations, seasonal variations, spatial variations, and variations that are connected with the level of solar activity, for quiet geomagnetic conditions (−20 nT ≤ Dst ≤ 20 nT). The effectiveness of three solar activity indices (sunspot number, solar radio flux at 10.7-cm wavelength [F10.7], and solar ultraviolet [UV] flux at 1 AU) for the neural network trainings was tested. The F10.7 and UV were more effective, and the F10.7 was used as it gave the least errors on the validation data set used. Equatorial anomaly simulations show a reduced occurrence during the June solstice season. The distance of separation between the anomaly crests is typically in the range from about 11.5 ± 1.0°to 16.0 ± 1.0°. The separation is observed to widen as solar activity levels increase. During the December solstice, the anomaly region shifts southwards of the equinox locations; in year 2012, the trough shifted by about 1.5°and the southern crest shifted by over 2.5°.
Key Points:• The first regional TEC model over the entire African region using empirical observations is developed • The model offers opportunities to conduct high spatial resolution investigations over the African region • EIA occurrence is reduced during the June solstice, and the anomaly region shifts southwards during December solstice Data used in this work include GPS data, indices for solar and geomagnetic activities, and data from ionospheric models used to comparatively verify/validate the model developed. Figure 7. RMSE variations for predictions of the AfriTEC model using the test data set under conditions of varying (a) latitudes, (b) F10.7 values, (c) local times, and (d) days of the years.Figure 11. (a) Sample TEC profile for longitude 20°E illustrating the determination of anomaly crest and trough locations. The illustrated profile is for the March equinox day of year 2012. (b) to (d) are spatial simulations of TEC from the AfriTEC model for 13:00 UT of day number 79 of years 2009, 2012, and 2014, respectively. The F10.7 values are respectively 68, 101, and 150.
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