Results from closures will determine the appropriateness and efficacy of this mitigation measure.

BackgroundThe 2010 influenza vaccination program for children aged 6 months to 4 years in Western Australia (WA) was suspended following reports of severe febrile reactions, including febrile convulsions, following vaccination with trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV).MethodsTo investigate the association between severe febrile reactions and TIV, three studies were conducted: (i) rates of febrile convulsions within 72 h of receiving TIV in 2010 were estimated by vaccine formulation and batch; (ii) numbers of children presenting to hospital emergency departments with febrile convulsions from 2008 to 2010 were compared; and (iii) a retrospective cohort study of 360 children was conducted to compare the reactogenicity of available TIV formulations.FindingsIn 2010, an estimated maximum of 18 816 doses of TIV were administered and 63 febrile convulsions were recorded, giving an estimated rate of 3.3 (95% CI 2.6 to 4.2) per 1000 doses of TIV administered. The odds of a TIV-associated febrile convulsion was highly elevated in 2010 (p<0.001) and was associated with the vaccine formulations of one manufacturer—Fluvax and Fluvax Junior (CSL Biotherapies). The risk of both febrile convulsions (p<0.0001) and other febrile reactions (p<0.0001) was significantly greater for Fluvax formulations compared to the major alternate brand. The risk of febrile events was not associated with prior receipt of TIV or monovalent 2009 H1N1 pandemic vaccine. The biological cause of the febrile reactions is currently unknown.InterpretationOne brand of influenza vaccine was responsible for the increase in febrile reactions, including febrile convulsions. Until the biological reason for this is determined and remediation undertaken, childhood influenza vaccination programs should not include Fluvax-type formulations and enhanced surveillance for febrile reactions in children receiving TIV should be undertaken.

VE estimates were higher when controls included only those children with another respiratory virus detected. Testing for other common respiratory viruses enables the control group to be restricted to those for whom an adequate sample is likely.

BackgroundIn mid-June 2009 the State of Victoria in Australia appeared to have the highest notification rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza in the world. We hypothesise that this was because community transmission of pandemic influenza was already well established in Victoria at the time testing for the novel virus commenced. In contrast, this was not true for the pandemic in other parts of Australia, including Western Australia (WA).MethodsWe used data from detailed case follow-up of patients with confirmed infection in Victoria and WA to demonstrate the difference in the pandemic curve in two Australian states on opposite sides of the continent. We modelled the pandemic in both states, using a susceptible-infected-removed model with Bayesian inference accounting for imported cases.ResultsEpidemic transmission occurred earlier in Victoria and later in WA. Only 5% of the first 100 Victorian cases were not locally acquired and three of these were brothers in one family. By contrast, 53% of the first 102 cases in WA were associated with importation from Victoria. Using plausible model input data, estimation of the effective reproductive number for the Victorian epidemic required us to invoke an earlier date for commencement of transmission to explain the observed data. This was not required in modelling the epidemic in WA.ConclusionStrong circumstantial evidence, supported by modelling, suggests community transmission of pandemic influenza was well established in Victoria, but not in WA, at the time testing for the novel virus commenced in Australia. The virus is likely to have entered Victoria and already become established around the time it was first identified in the US and Mexico.

TOC summary: Infections were similar in terms of symptoms, risk factors, and proportion of patients hospitalized.