Studies at a regional scale suggest that although maize (Zea mays L.) yield increased substantially, sensitivity to water deficit also increased concurrently with crop improvement. This study assessed changes in yield and yield stability after two decades of breeding by evaluating two cohorts of hybrids released by the AQUAmax program and comparing them to a non‐AQUAmax control. Studies were conducted in 2019 and 2020 seasons at four sites under well‐watered, moderate and severe stress conditions. Plant densities varied from 2.5 to 12.5 pl m−2. AQUAmax hybrids yielded more than non‐AQUAmax hybrids under water deficit conditions with the magnitude of the difference dependent on plant density. The sensitivity in yield across environments with a wide range of total crop evapotranspiration (350–800 mm) was lower for AQUAmax than non‐AQUAmax, so both yield and yield under stress conditions (yield stability), were enhanced for AQUAmax hybrids. The median differences between observed yields and the 80% quantile yield–evapotranspiration front were 379 for AQUAmax and 427 g m−2 for non‐AQUAmax hybrids. We conclude that deliberate selection of hybrids for yield performance under water deficit underpinned the sustained improvement in yield stability after two decades of drought breeding. Future research should focus on understanding the root causes for the suboptimal utilization of drought tolerant maize for the diversity of environments at a regional scale.

Over the last decade, society witnessed the largest expansion of agricultural land planted with drought tolerant (DT) maize (Zea mays L.) Dedicated efforts to drought breeding led to development of DT maize. Here we show that after two decades of sustained breeding efforts the rate of crop improvement under drought is in the range 1.0-1.6% yr-1, which is higher than rates (0.7% yr-1) reported prior to drought breeding. Prediction technologies that leverage biological understanding and statistical learning to improve upon the quantitative genetics framework will further accelerate genetic gain. A review of published and unpublished analyses conducted on data including 138 breeding populations and 93 environments between 2009 and 2019 demonstrated an average prediction skill (r) improvement around 0.2. These methods applied to pre-commercial stages showed accuracies higher that current statistical approaches (0.85 vs. 0.70). Improvement in hybrid and management choice can increase water productivity. Digital gap analyses are applicable at field scale suggesting the possibility of transition from evaluating hybrids to designing genotype x management (GxM) technologies for target cropping systems in drought prone areas. Due to the biocomplexity of drought, research and development efforts should be sustained to advance knowledge and iteratively improve models.

Tiller presence never reduced yield in evaluated environments and plant densities.  In favorable scenarios, corn tillers have plant density compensation potential. Plant density adjustment was necessary to maximize yield for all environments. Corn tillers have plasticity potential to optimize defensive management strategies.

Targeting the right agronomic optimum plant density (AOPD) for maize (Zea mays L.) is a critical management decision, but even more when the seed cost and grain selling price are accounted for, i.e. economic OPD (EOPD). From the perspective of improving those estimates, past studies have focused on utilizing a Frequentist (classical) approach for obtaining single-point estimates for the yield-density models. Alternative analysis models such as Bayesian computational methods can provide more reliable estimation for AOPD, EOPD and yield at those optimal densities and better quantify the scope of uncertainty and variability that may be in the data. Thus, the aims of this research were to (i) quantify AOPD, EOPD and yield at those plant densities, (ii) obtain and compare clusters of yield-density for different attainable yields and latitudes, and (iii) characterize their influence on EOPD variability under different economic scenarios, i.e. seed cost to corn price ratios. Maize hybrid by seeding rate trials were conducted in 24 US states from 2010 to 2019, in at least one county per state. This study identified common yield-density response curves as well as plant density and yield optimums for 460 site-years. Locations below 40.5 N latitude showed a positive relationship between AOPD and maximum yield, in parallel to the high potential level of productivity. At these latitudes, EOPD depended mostly on the maximum attainable yield. For the northern latitudes, EOPD was not only dependent on the attainable yield but on the cost:price ratio, with high ratios favoring reductions in EOPD at similar yields. A significant contribution from the Bayesian method was realizing that the variability of the estimators for AOPD is sometimes greater than the adjustment accounting for seed cost. Our results point at the differential response across latitudes and commercial relative maturity, as well as the significant uncertainty in the prediction of AOPD, relative to the economic value of the crop and the seed cost adjustments.

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