No abstract

Past assessments report negative impacts of the climate crisis in boreal areas; but milder and shorter winters and elevated atmospheric CO 2 may provide opportunities for agricultural productivity potentially playing a significant role in future food security. Arable cropping systems are expanding in boreal areas, but the regional mainstay will likely continue to be livestock production. Agroecological models can when appropriately calibrated and evaluated, facilitate improved productivity while minimising environmental impacts by identifying system interactions, and quantifying greenhouse gas emissions, soil carbon stocks and fertiliser use. While models designed for temperate and tropical zones abound, few are developed specifically for boreal zones, and there is uncertainty around the performance of existing models in boreal areas. We reviewed model performance across boreal environments and management systems. We identified a dearth of modelling studies in boreal regions, with the publication of three or less papers per year since the year 2000, constituting a significant research gap. Models IFSM and BASGRA_N performed best in grassland production, DNDC best in predicting soil N 2 O and NH 3 emissions. No model outperformed all others, strengthening the case for ensemble modelling. Existing agroecological models would be worthy of further evaluation, providing model improvements designed for boreal systems.

No abstract

With global warming, arable land in boreal regions is tending to expand into high latitude regions in the northern hemisphere. This entails certain risks; such that inappropriate management could result in previously stable carbon sinks becoming sources. Agroecological models are an important tool for assessing the sustainability of long-term management, yet applications of such models in boreal zones are scarce. We collated eddy-covariance, soil climate and biomass data to evaluate the simulation of GHG emissions from grassland in eastern Finland using the process-based model DNDC. We simulated gross primary production (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) with fair performance. Soil climate, soil temperature and soil moisture at 5 cm were excellent, and soil moisture at 20 cm was good. However, the model overestimated NEE and Reco following crop termination and tillage events. These results indicate that DNDC can satisfactorily simulate GHG fluxes in a boreal grassland setting, but further work is needed, particularly in simulated second biomass cuts, the (>20 cm) soil layers and model response to management transitions between crop types, cultivation, and land use change.

With global warming, arable land in boreal regions is tending to expand into high latitude regions in the northern hemisphere. This entails certain risks; such that inappropriate management could result in previously stable carbon sinks becoming sources. Agroecological models are an important tool for assessing the sustainability of long-term management, yet applications of such models in boreal zones are scarce. We collated eddy-covariance, soil climate and biomass data to evaluate the simulation of GHG emissions from grassland in eastern Finland using the process-based model DNDC. We simulated gross primary production (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) with fair performance. Soil climate, soil temperature and soil moisture at 5 cm were excellent, and soil moisture at 20 cm was good. However, the model overestimated NEE and Reco following crop termination and tillage events. These results indicate that DNDC can satisfactorily simulate GHG fluxes in a boreal grassland setting, but further work is needed, particularly in simulated second biomass cuts, the (>20 cm) soil layers and model response to management transitions between crop types, cultivation, and land use change.