Influenza A (H3N2) offers a well-studied, yet not fully understood, disease in terms of the interactions between pathogen population dynamics, epidemiology and genetics. A major open question is why the virus population is globally dominated by a single and very recently diverged (2–8 years) lineage. Classically, this has been modeled by limiting the generation of new successful antigenic variants, such that only a small subset of progeny acquire the necessary mutations to evade host immunity. An alternative approach was recently suggested by Recker et al. in which a limited number of antigenic variants are continuously generated, but most of these are suppressed by pre-existing host population immunity. Here we develop a framework spanning the regimes described above to explore the impact of rates of mutation and levels of competition on phylodynamic patterns. We find that the evolutionary dynamics of the subtype H3N2 influenza is most easily generated within this framework when it is mutation limited as well as being under strong immune selection at a number of epitope regions of limited diversity.

BackgroundInfluenza A/H3N2 has been circulating in humans since 1968, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. Although H3N2 incidence is highly seasonal, how such seasonality contributes to global phylogeographic migration dynamics has not yet been established. In this study, we incorporate time-varying migration rates in a Bayesian MCMC framework. We focus on migration within China, and to and from North-America as case studies, then expand the analysis to global communities.ResultsIncorporating seasonally varying migration rates improves the modeling of migration in our regional case studies, and also in a global context. In our global model, windows of increased immigration map to the seasonal timing of epidemic spread, while windows of increased emigration map to epidemic decline. Seasonal patterns also correlate with the probability that local lineages go extinct and fail to contribute to long term viral evolution, as measured through the trunk of the phylogeny. However, the fraction of the trunk in each community was found to be better determined by its overall human population size.ConclusionsSeasonal migration and rapid turnover within regions is sustained by the invasion of 'fertile epidemic grounds' at the end of older epidemics. Thus, the current emphasis on connectivity, including air-travel, should be complemented with a better understanding of the conditions and timing required for successful establishment. Models which account for migration seasonality will improve our understanding of the seasonal drivers of influenza, enhance epidemiological predictions, and ameliorate vaccine updating by identifying strains that not only escape immunity but also have the seasonal opportunity to establish and spread. Further work is also needed on additional conditions that contribute to the persistence and long term evolution of influenza within the human population, such as spatial heterogeneity with respect to climate and seasonality.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-014-0272-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

High-affinity antibodies arise within weeks of infection from the evolution of B-cell receptors under selection to improve antigen recognition. This rapid adaptation is enabled by the distribution of highly mutable “hotspot” motifs in B-cell receptor genes. High mutability in antigen-binding regions (complementarity determining regions [CDRs]) creates variation in binding affinity, whereas low mutability in structurally important regions (framework regions [FRs]) may reduce the frequency of destabilizing mutations. During the response, loss of mutational hotspots and changes in their distribution across CDRs and FRs are predicted to compromise the adaptability of B-cell receptors, yet the contributions of different mechanisms to gains and losses of hotspots remain unclear. We reconstructed changes in anti-HIV B-cell receptor sequences and show that mutability losses were ∼56% more frequent than gains in both CDRs and FRs, with the higher relative mutability of CDRs maintained throughout the response. At least 21% of the total mutability loss was caused by synonymous mutations. However, nonsynonymous substitutions caused most (79%) of the mutability loss in CDRs. Because CDRs also show strong positive selection, this result suggests that selection for mutations that increase binding affinity contributed to loss of mutability in antigen-binding regions. Although recurrent adaptation to evolving viruses could indirectly select for high mutation rates, we found no evidence of indirect selection to increase or retain hotspots. Our results suggest mutability losses are intrinsic to both the neutral and adaptive evolution of B-cell populations and might constrain their adaptation to rapidly evolving pathogens such as HIV and influenza.

22The role of competitive interactions in the formation and coexistence of viral strains remains 23 unresolved. Neglected aspects of existing strain theory are that viral pathogens are repeatedly 24 introduced from animal sources and readily exchange their genes. The combined effect of 25 introduction and reassortment opposes strain structure, in particular the predicted stable 26