SummaryBackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations.MethodsWe used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.FindingsIn 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). I...

BackgroundExposure to arsenic (As) concentrations in drinking water > 150 μg/L has been associated with risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease, but little is known about the effects of lower exposures.ObjectiveThis study aimed to examine whether moderate As exposure, or indicators of individual As metabolism at these levels of exposure, are associated with cardiometabolic risk.MethodsWe analyzed cross-sectional associations between arsenic exposure and multiple markers of cardiometabolic risk using drinking-water As measurements and urinary As species data obtained from 1,160 adults in Chihuahua, Mexico, who were recruited in 2008–2013. Fasting blood glucose and lipid levels, the results of an oral glucose tolerance test, and blood pressure were used to characterize cardiometabolic risk. Multivariable logistic, multinomial, and linear regression were used to assess associations between cardiometabolic outcomes and water As or the sum of inorganic and methylated As species in urine.ResultsAfter multivariable adjustment, concentrations in the second quartile of water As (25.5 to < 47.9 μg/L) and concentrations of total speciated urinary As (< 55.8 μg/L) below the median were significantly associated with elevated triglycerides, high total cholesterol, and diabetes. However, moderate water and urinary As levels were also positively associated with HDL cholesterol. Associations between arsenic exposure and both dysglycemia and triglyceridemia were higher among individuals with higher proportions of dimethylarsenic in urine.ConclusionsModerate exposure to As may increase cardiometabolic risk, particularly in individuals with high proportions of urinary dimethylarsenic. In this cohort, As exposure was associated with several markers of increased cardiometabolic risk (diabetes, triglyceridemia, and cholesterolemia), but exposure was also associated with higher rather than lower HDL cholesterol.CitationMendez MA, González-Horta C, Sánchez-Ramírez B, Ballinas-Casarrubias L, Hernández Cerón R, Viniegra Morales D, Baeza Terrazas FA, Ishida MC, Gutiérrez-Torres DS, Saunders RJ, Drobná Z, Fry RC, Buse JB, Loomis D, García-Vargas GG, Del Razo LM, Stýblo M. 2016. Chronic exposure to arsenic and markers of cardiometabolic risk: a cross-sectional study in Chihuahua, Mexico. Environ Health Perspect 124:104–111; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408742

Chronic exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) has been linked to an increased risk of diabetes, yet the specific disease phenotype and underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. In the present study we set out to identify iAs exposure-associated metabolites with altered abundance in nondiabetic and diabetic individuals in an effort to understand the relationship between exposure, metabolomic response, and disease status. A nested study design was used to profile metabolomic shifts in urine and plasma collected from 90 diabetic and 86 nondiabetic individuals matched for varying iAs concentrations in drinking water, body mass index, age, and sex. Diabetes diagnosis was based on measures of fasting plasma glucose and 2-h blood glucose. Multivariable models were used to identify metabolites with altered abundance associated with iAs exposure among diabetic and nondiabetic individuals. A total of 132 metabolites were identified to shift in urine or plasma in response to iAs exposure characterized by the sum of iAs metabolites in urine (U-tAs). Although many metabolites were altered in both diabetic and nondiabetic 35 subjects, diabetic individuals displayed a unique response to iAs exposure with 59 altered metabolites including those that play a role in tricarboxylic acid cycle and amino acid metabolism. Taken together, these data highlight the broad impact of iAs exposure on the human metabolome, and demonstrate some specificity of the metabolomic response between diabetic and nondiabetic individuals. These data may provide novel insights into the mechanisms and phenotype of diabetes associated with iAs exposure.

Background: A growing number of studies link chronic exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) with the risk of diabetes. Many of these studies assessed iAs exposure by measuring arsenic (As) species in urine. However, this approach has been criticized because of uncertainties associated with renal function and urine dilution in diabetic individuals.Objectives: Our goal was to examine associations between the prevalence of diabetes and concentrations of As species in exfoliated urothelial cells (EUC) as an alternative to the measures of As in urine.Methods: We measured concentrations of trivalent and pentavalent iAs methyl-As (MAs) and dimethyl-As (DMAs) species in EUC from 374 residents of Chihuahua, Mexico, who were exposed to iAs in drinking water. We used fasting plasma glucose, glucose tolerance tests, and self-reported diabetes diagnoses or medication to identify diabetic participants. Associations between As species in EUC and diabetes were estimated using logistic and linear regression, adjusting for age, sex, and body mass index.Results: Interquartile-range increases in trivalent, but not pentavalent, As species in EUC were positively and significantly associated with diabetes, with ORs of 1.57 (95% CI: 1.19, 2.07) for iAsIII, 1.63 (1.24, 2.15) for MAsIII, and 1.31 (0.96, 1.84) for DMAsIII. DMAs/MAs and DMAs/iAs ratios were negatively associated with diabetes (OR = 0.62; 95% CI: 0.47, 0.83 and OR = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.55, 0.96, respectively).Conclusions: Our data suggest that uncertainties associated with measures of As species in urine may be avoided by using As species in EUC as markers of iAs exposure and metabolism. Our results provide additional support to previous findings suggesting that trivalent As species may be responsible for associations between diabetes and chronic iAs exposure.Citation: Currier JM, Ishida MC, González-Horta C, Sánchez-Ramírez B, Ballinas-Casarrubias L, Gutiérrez-Torres DS, Hernández Cerón R, Viniegra Morales D, Baeza Terrazas FA, Del Razo LM, García-Vargas GG, Saunders RJ, Drobná Z, Fry RC, Matoušek T, Buse JB, Mendez MA, Loomis D, Stýblo M. 2014. Associations between arsenic species in exfoliated urothelial cells and prevalence of diabetes among residents of Chihuahua, Mexico. Environ Health Perspect 122:1088–1094; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307756

ObjectiveTo analyse trends in cigarette brand preference among Mexican smokers during the implementation period of key WHO’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control recommendations.MethodsData came from two nationally representative, comparable surveys, namely the Global Adult Tobacco Survey 2009 and 2015 and the National Survey on Addictions 2011 and 2016. Logistic models were used to estimate the adjusted prevalence of each brand purchased, as well as individual correlates of purchasing the single brand with a large growth over the study period. Multiple linear regressions were also employed to analyse cigarette prices across brands.ResultsSix brand families accounted for about 90% of the cigarette market, with Marlboro clearly dominating all brands at 54%–61%. Only the share of Pall Mall brand, however, registered a rapid increase over the period—from 1% in 2009 to 14% in 2016. Women and younger smokers (15–24 years) were more likely to prefer Pall Mall over other brands. While the typical price segmentation between international (premium) brands and national (discount) brands was observed, the price of Pall Mall is within the range of the latter. Importantly, most varieties of this brand include flavour capsule varieties (FCVs).ConclusionsThis study suggests that the strong campaign of brand migration, the pricing strategy and the aggressive introduction of FCVs expanded Pall Mall in the Mexican cigarette market. Therefore, better control policies of cigarette contents and taxes that reduce price differentials across brands should be encouraged to promote public health.