The randomness, volatility, and intermittence of solar power generation make it difficult to achieve the desired accuracy of PV output-power prediction. Therefore, the time learning weight (TLW) proposed in this paper is used to improve the time correlation of the LSTM network. The Fusion Activation Function (FAF) is used to resolve gradient disappearance. Learning Factor Adaptation (LFA) and Momentum Resistance Weight Estimation (MRWE) are used to accelerate weight convergence and improve global search capabilities. Finally, this paper synthesizes the improvement and proposes the AHPA-LSTM model to stabilize the convergence domain. Using actual data verification, the δ MAPE indicator of the improved model is only 2.85% on a sunny day, 5.92% on a cloudy day, 7.71% on a rainy day, and only 5.8% on average. Therefore, the AHPA-LSTM model under full climate and climatic conditions has a good predictive effect which is generally applicable to the prediction of ultra-short-term PV power generation. INDEX TERMS Photovoltaic output power, ultra-short-term prediction, long short term memory (LSTM), time weight decoupling, adaptive hyperparameter adjustment.
This paper proposes an effective method to estimate the state of health (SOH) of a lithium-ion battery based on the ohm internal resistance R0. Unlike other estimation methods, this work considers the variation of R0 with the state of charge (SOC). The improved unscented particle filter (IUPF) is presented to track and predict R0. That is, an unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is used to generate an importance probability density function in the particle filter, and a method to select the fittest particle in the resampling stage is proposed. Based on the experimental data, a second-order resistance-capacitance equivalent circuit model is set up and the parameters are identified. To verify the accuracy of the proposed method, UKF and IUPF are compared in the prediction of R0 at different SOC points under the same cycle and at the same SOC point of different cycles. The results show that IUPF has certain advantages, and the SOH estimation error is always less than 3% during the charge-discharge stage.
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