The standard membrane feeding assay (SMFA) is currently considered to be the 'gold standard' for assessing the effectiveness of malaria transmission blocking interventions (TBIs) in vivo. The operation and analysis of SMFAs has varied between laboratories: field scientists often measure TBI efficacy as a reduction in the prevalence of infected mosquitoes whilst laboratory scientists are more likely to quote efficacy as a change in the number of oocysts within the mosquito. These metrics give outputs that differ widely, resulting in a need for greater understanding of how the SMFA informs TBI assessment. Using data from 536 different assays (conducted on Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium berghei, in either Anopheles gambiae or Anopheles stephensi) it is shown that the relationship between these metrics is complex, yet predictable. Results demonstrate that the distribution of oocysts between mosquitoes is highly aggregated, making efficacy estimates based on reductions in intensity highly uncertain. Analysis of 30 SMFAs carried out on the same TBI confirms that the observed reduction in prevalence depends upon the parasite exposure (as measured by oocyst intensity in the control group), with assays which have lower exposure appearing more effective. By contrast, if efficacy is estimated as a reduction in oocyst intensity, then this candidate demonstrated constant efficacy, irrespective of the exposure level. To report transmission-blockade efficacy accurately, the results of SMFAs should give both the prevalence and intensity of oocysts in both the control and intervention group. Candidates should be assessed against a range of parasite exposures to allow laboratory results to be extrapolated to different field situations. Currently, many studies assessing TBIs are underpowered and uncertainties in efficacy estimates rarely reported. Statistical techniques that account for oocyst over-dispersion can reduce the number of mosquitoes that need to be dissected and allow TBI candidates from different laboratories to be accurately compared.

Understanding the importance of gametocyte density on human-to-mosquito transmission is of immediate relevance to malaria control. Previous work (Churcher et al., 2013) indicated a complex relationship between gametocyte density and mosquito infection. Here we use data from 148 feeding experiments on naturally infected gametocyte carriers to show that the relationship is much simpler and depends on both female and male parasite density. The proportion of mosquitoes infected is primarily determined by the density of female gametocytes though transmission from low gametocyte densities may be impeded by a lack of male parasites. Improved precision of gametocyte quantification simplifies the shape of the relationship with infection increasing rapidly before plateauing at higher densities. The mean number of oocysts per mosquito rises quickly with gametocyte density but continues to increase across densities examined. The work highlights the importance of measuring both female and male gametocyte density when estimating the human reservoir of infection.