IMPORTANCE The use and misuse of P values has generated extensive debates. OBJECTIVE To evaluate in large scale the P values reported in the abstracts and full text of biomedical research articles over the past 25 years and determine how frequently statistical information is presented in ways other than P values. DESIGN Automated text-mining analysis was performed to extract data on P values reported in 12 821 790 MEDLINE abstracts and in 843 884 abstracts and full-text articles in PubMed Central (PMC) from 1990 to 2015. Reporting of P values in 151 English-language core clinical journals and specific article types as classified by PubMed also was evaluated. A random sample of 1000 MEDLINE abstracts was manually assessed for reporting of P values and other types of statistical information; of those abstracts reporting empirical data, 100 articles were also assessed in full text. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES P values reported. RESULTS Text mining identified 4 572 043 P values in 1 608 736 MEDLINE abstracts and 3 438 299 P values in 385 393 PMC full-text articles. Reporting of P values in abstracts increased from 7.3% in 1990 to 15.6% in 2014. In 2014, P values were reported in 33.0% of abstracts from the 151 core clinical journals (n = 29 725 abstracts), 35.7% of meta-analyses (n = 5620), 38.9% of clinical trials (n = 4624), 54.8% of randomized controlled trials (n = 13 544), and 2.4% of reviews (n = 71 529). The distribution of reported P values in abstracts and in full text showed strong clustering at P values of .05 and of .001 or smaller. Over time, the "best" (most statistically significant) reported P values were modestly smaller and the "worst" (least statistically significant) reported P values became modestly less significant. Among the MEDLINE abstracts and PMC full-text articles with P values, 96% reported at least 1 P value of .05 or lower, with the proportion remaining steady over time in PMC full-text articles. In 1000 abstracts that were manually reviewed, 796 were from articles reporting empirical data; P values were reported in 15.7% (125/796 [95% CI, 13.2%-18.4%]) of abstracts, confidence intervals in 2.3% (18/796 [95% CI, 1.3%-3.6%]), Bayes factors in 0% (0/796 [95% CI, 0%-0.5%]), effect sizes in 13.9% (111/796 [95% CI, 11.6%-16.5%]), other information that could lead to estimation of P values in 12.4% (99/796 [95% CI, 10.2%-14.9%]), and qualitative statements about significance in 18.1% (181/1000 [95% CI, 15.8%-20.6%]); only 1.8% (14/796 [95% CI, 1.0%-2.9%]) of abstracts reported at least 1 effect size and at least 1 confidence interval. Among 99 manually extracted full-text articles with data, 55 reported P values, 4 presented confidence intervals for all reported effect sizes, none used Bayesian methods, 1 used false-discovery rates, 3 used sample size/power calculations, and 5 specified the primary outcome. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this analysis of P values reported in MEDLINE abstracts and in PMC articles from 1990-2015, more MEDLINE abstracts and articles reported P values over time, alm...
We introduce an automated method for the bottom-up reconstruction of the cognitive evolution of science, based on big-data issued from digital libraries, and modeled as lineage relationships between scientific fields. We refer to these dynamic structures as phylomemetic networks or phylomemies, by analogy with biological evolution; and we show that they exhibit strong regularities, with clearly identifiable phylomemetic patterns. Some structural properties of the scientific fields - in particular their density -, which are defined independently of the phylomemy reconstruction, are clearly correlated with their status and their fate in the phylomemy (like their age or their short term survival). Within the framework of a quantitative epistemology, this approach raises the question of predictibility for science evolution, and sketches a prototypical life cycle of the scientific fields: an increase of their cohesion after their emergence, the renewal of their conceptual background through branching or merging events, before decaying when their density is getting too low.
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