Though eleven novel COVID-19 vaccines have demonstrated efficacy, additional affordable, scalable, and deliverable vaccines are needed to meet unprecedented global demand. With placebo-controlled efficacy trials becoming infeasible due to the roll out of licensed vaccines, a correlate of protection is urgently needed to provide a path for regulatory approval of novel vaccines. To assess whether antibody titers may reasonably predict efficacy, we evaluated the relationship between efficacy and in vitro neutralizing and binding antibodies of 7 vaccines for which sufficient data have been generated. Once calibrated to titers of human convalescent sera reported in each study, a robust correlation was seen between neutralizing titer and efficacy (ρ= 0.79) and binding antibody titer and efficacy (ρ = 0.93), despite geographically diverse study populations subject to different forces of infection and circulating variants, and use of different endpoints, assays, convalescent sera panels and manufacturing platforms. This correlation is strengthened by substituting post-hoc analyses for efficacy against the ancestral strain (D614G), where available. Together with an accumulating body of evidence from natural history studies and animal models, these results support the use of post-immunization antibody titers as the basis for establishing a correlate of protection for COVID-19 vaccines.

Introduction: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) specific antibodies have been shown to neutralize the virus in-vitro. Understanding antibody dynamics following SARS-CoV-2 infection is therefore crucial. Sensitive measurement of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is also vital for large seroprevalence surveys which inform government policies and public health interventions. However, rapidly waning antibodies following SARS-CoV-2 infection could jeopardize the sensitivity of serological testing on which these surveys depend. Methods: This prospective cohort study of SARS-CoV-2 humoral dynamics in a central London hospital analyzed 137 serial samples collected from 67 participants seropositive to SARS-CoV-2 by the Meso-Scale Discovery assay. Antibody titers were quantified to the SARS-CoV-2 nucleoprotein (N), spike (S-)protein and the receptor-binding-domain (RBD) of the S-protein. Titers were log-transformed and a multivariate log-linear model with time-since-infection and clinical variables was fitted by Bayesian methods. Results: The mean estimated half-life of the N-antibody was 52 days (95% CI 42-65). The S- and RBD-antibody had significantly longer mean half-lives of 81 days (95% CI 61-111) and 83 days (95% CI 55-137) respectively. An ACE-2-receptor competition assay demonstrated significant correlation between the S and RBD-antibody titers and ACE2-receptor blocking in-vitro. The time-to-a-negative N-antibody test for 50% of the seropositive population was predicted to be 195 days (95% CI 163-236). Discussion: After SARS-CoV-2 infection, the predicted half-life of N-antibody was 52 days with 50% of seropositive participants becoming seronegative to this antibody at 195 days. Widely used serological tests that depend on the N-antibody will therefore significantly underestimate the prevalence of infection following the majority of infections.

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Background and Purpose: Respiratory viral infections play central roles in the initiation, exacerbation and progression of asthma in humans. An acute paramyxoviral infection in mice can cause a chronic lung disease that resembles human asthma. We sought to determine whether reduction of Sendai virus lung burden in mice by stimulating innate immunity with aerosolized Toll-like receptor (TLR) agonists could attenuate the severity of chronic asthma-like lung disease. Experimental Approach: Mice were treated by aerosol with 1-μM oligodeoxynucleotide (ODN) M362, an agonist of the TLR9 homodimer, and 4-μM Pam2CSK4 (Pam2), an agonist of the TLR2/6 heterodimer, within a few days before or after Sendai virus challenge. Key Results: Treatment with ODN/Pam2 caused~75% reduction in lung Sendai virus burden 5 days after challenge. The reduction in acute lung virus burden was associated with marked reductions 49 days after viral challenge in eosinophilic and lymphocytic lung inflammation, airway mucous metaplasia, lumenal mucus occlusion and hyperresponsiveness to methacholine. Mechanistically, ODN/Pam2 treatment attenuated the chronic asthma phenotype by suppressing IL-33 production by type 2 pneumocytes, both by reducing the severity of acute infection and by downregulating Type 2 (allergic) inflammation. Conclusion and Implications: These data suggest that treatment of susceptible human hosts with aerosolized ODN and Pam2 at the time of a respiratory viral infection might attenuate the severity of the acute infection and reduce initiation, exacerbation and progression of asthma.

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