No abstract

In order to develop a valued decision-support system for climate alteration policy and planning, recognizing the regionally-specific features of the climate change, energy-water nexus, and the history of the current and possible future climate, water and energy supply systems is necessary. This paper presents an integrated climate change, water/energy modeling platform which allows tailored climate alteration and water-energy assessments. This modeling platform is established and described in details based on particular regional circumstances. The modeling platform involves linking three different models, including the climate change model from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under the most severe scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, Water Evaluation, and Planning system and the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system). This is to understand the impacts of climate variability (changes in temperature and precipitation) on water and electricity consumption in Zayandeh Rud River Basin (Central Iran) for the current (1971–2005) and future time period (2006–2040). Climate models have projected that the temperature will increase by 7 °C and precipitation will decrease by 44%, it is also proposed that electricity imports will rise during a severe dry scenario in the basin, while power generation will decrease around 8%.

Different sets of dry spell length such as complete series, monthly maximum, seasonal maximum, and annual maximum are applied and modeled with different probability distribution functions (such as Gumbel Max, generalized extreme value, Log-Logistic, generalized logistic, inverse Gaussian, Log-Pearson 3, generalized Pareto) to recognize in which duration, dry spells cause drought. The drought situation and temporal analysis in the North of Iraq region were done using the SPI index and by software of DrinC at a time scale of 3.6 and 12 months. Because of applicability, availability of data and the aim of the study, SPI is selected to analyze the dry spells in this study. Based on the maximum length of the available statistical period, the statistics for the years 1980 to 2019 were used from nine meteorological stations for analysis. The results of the study showed the severity of drought during the study period which related to dry spells. The results of this research confirm the variation of drought occurrence with varying degrees in different time and different dry spells condition in Iraq.

<p>The Peruvian Andes are a hotspot of vulnerabilities to impacts in water resources due to the propensity for water stress, the highly unpredictable weather, the sensitivity of glaciers, and the socio-economic vulnerability of its population. In this context, we selected the Vilcanota-Urubamba catchment in Southern Peru for addressing these challenges aiming at our objectives within a particular hydrological high-mountain context in the tropical Andes: a) Develop a fully-distributed, physically-based glacier surface energy balance model that allows for a realistic representation of glacier dynamics in glacier melt projections; b) Design and implement a glacio-hydrological monitoring and data collection approach to quantify non-glacial contributions to water resources and the impact of catchments interventions; c) Mapping of human water use at high spatiotemporal resolution and determining current and future levels of water (in)security; and d) Integrate last objectives in a glacier - water security assessment model and evaluate the tool's capacity to support locally embedded climate change adaptation strategies. </p><p>The RAHU project intends to transform the scientific understanding of the impact of glacier shrinkage on water security and, at the same time, to connect to and inform policy practices in Peru. It follows a "source to tap" paradigm, in which is planned to deliver a comprehensive and fully integrated water resources vulnerability assessment framework for glacier-fed basins, comprising state-of-the-art glaciology, hydrology, water demand characterisation, and water security assessment. It includes glacio-hydrological and water resources monitoring campaigns, to complement existing monitoring efforts of our project partners and collaborators, and new remotely sensed data sets. Those campaigns will be implemented using the principles and tools of participatory monitoring and knowledge co-creation that our team has pioneered in the tropical Andes. The datasets produced by this approach, combined with existing monitoring implemented by our team and collaborators, will allow us to build an integrated water supply-demand-vulnerability assessment model for glacierized basins, and to use this to evaluate adaptation strategies at the local scale. </p><p>This research is part of the multidisciplinary collaboration between British and Peruvian scientists (Newton Fund, Newton-Paulet).</p>

<p>Research in the river corridor commonly focuses in two study designs. One research strategy focuses on physical, chemical, and/or biological dynamics and feedbacks, emphasizing local variation and interaction over larger-scale context. A second study design focuses on gradients arising in response to non-local controls (e.g., climate, tectonic setting), with an emphasis on broad trends over smaller-scale “noise”. Here, we present a comprehensive set of measurements and calculated metrics describing physical, chemical, and biological conditions collected at 62 sites in the river corridor within a 5<sup>th</sup> order basin including more than 150 variables at each site. The size and scope of this data set allows us to assess which variables have spatial structure in the basin using spatial semivariograms and regressions with discharge and drainage area. We ask how physical, chemical, and biological sub-systems co-vary using a principal components analyses. Next, we explain both spatial structure and local variance simultaneously using support vector machine regression techniques that reveal possible nonlinear, multivariate relationships that may direct future research. Key outcomes from this study include (1) an introduction to an open-source, comprehensive characterization of the river corridor, (2) interpretations of both broad trends and local variance in the river corridor, and (3) a summary of which metrics have the most explanatory power and why within the study system.</p>