No abstract

Overcoming vaccine hesitancy is critical to containing the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. To increase vaccination rates, the State of Ohio launched a million dollar lottery in May 2021. Following a pre-registered analysis, we estimate the effects of Ohio’s lottery program Vax-a-Million on COVID-19 vaccination rates by comparing it to a “synthetic control” composed of eight other states. We find a statistically insignificant 1.3% decrease in the full vaccination rate in Ohio at the end of the lottery period. We investigate the robustness of our conclusion to model specifications through a multiverse analysis of 216 possible models, including longer time periods and alternative vaccination measures. The majority (88%) find small negative effects in line with the results of our pre-registered model. While our results are most consistent with a decrease in vaccination rate, they do not allow a firm conclusion on whether the lottery increased or decreased vaccine uptake.

Education has faced unprecedented disruption during the COVID pandemic. Understanding how students have adapted as we have entered a different phase of the pandemic and some communities have returned to more typical schooling will inform a suite of policy interventions and subsequent research. We use data from an oral reading fluency assessment-a rapid assessment taking only a few minutes that measures a fundamental reading skill-to examine COVID’s effects on children’s reading ability during the pandemic. We find that students in the first 200 days of the 2020-2021 school year tended to experience slower growth in ORF relative to pre-pandemic years. We also observed slower growth in districts with a high percentage of English language learners (ELLs) and/or students eligible for free and reduced-price lunch (FRL).

Education has faced unprecedented disruption during the COVID pandemic. Understanding how students have adapted as we have entered a different phase of the pandemic and some communities have returned to more typical schooling will inform a suite of policy interventions and subsequent research. We use data from an oral reading fluency (ORF) assessment—a rapid assessment taking only a few minutes that measures a fundamental reading skill—to examine COVID’s effects on children’s reading ability during the pandemic. We find that students in the first 200 days of the 2020–2021 school year tended to experience slower growth in ORF relative to prepandemic years. We also observe slower growth in districts with a high percentage of English language learners and/or students eligible for free and reduced-price lunch. These findings offer valuable insight into the effects of COVID on one of the most fundamental skills taught to children.